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- W2015315061 abstract "Can genocides be predicted? I present two models (and further robustness tests) to assess the risk of genocide onset one year into the future. The first model is global and includes all country-years for which data are available. While it does a good job at identifying the few cases of genocide onset in the sample, it also generates a high number of false alarms. The second model uses a smaller sample restricted to conflict-years. It correctly identifies nine of the ten cases of genocide onset and the number of false alarms is reduced, although the model needs further improvements before it can be put to practical use. While developing the models in an inductive, iterative way, I identify a number of factors that correlate with genocide onset, adding to existing research. These include direct threats to a government (riots, assassinations and, in one of the robustness tests, anti-government demonstrations) and economic discrimination against ethnic groups." @default.
- W2015315061 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2015315061 date "2013-03-01" @default.
- W2015315061 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W2015315061 title "Will it happen again? On the possibility of forecasting the risk of genocide" @default.
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- W2015315061 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/14623528.2012.759398" @default.
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