Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2015756067> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 90 of
90
with 100 items per page.
- W2015756067 endingPage "211" @default.
- W2015756067 startingPage "185" @default.
- W2015756067 abstract "ABSTRACT Most of the methods of mortality forecasting have been assessed using performance on overall mortality, and few studies address the issue of identifying the appropriate forecasting models for specific causes of deaths. This study analyses trends and forecasts mortality rates for three major causes of death — lung cancer, influenza-pneumonia-bronchitis, and motor vehicle accidents — using Lee–Carter, Booth–Maindonald–Smith, Age-Period-Cohort, and Bayesian models, to assess how far different causes of death need different forecasting methods. Using data from the Twentieth and Twenty-First Century Mortality databases for England and Wales, results show major differences among the different forecasting techniques. In particular, when linearity is the main driver of past trends, Lee–Carter-based approaches are preferred due to their straightforward assumptions and limited need for subjective judgment. When a clear cohort pattern is detectable, such as with lung cancer, the Age-Period-Cohort model shows the best outcome. When complete and reliable historical trends are available the Bayesian model does not produce better results than the other models." @default.
- W2015756067 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2015756067 creator A5041251687 @default.
- W2015756067 creator A5061675894 @default.
- W2015756067 date "2009-01-01" @default.
- W2015756067 modified "2023-09-29" @default.
- W2015756067 title "Forecasting Mortality, Different Approaches for Different Cause of Deaths? The Cases of Lung Cancer; Influenza, Pneumonia, and Bronchitis; and Motor Vehicle Accidents" @default.
- W2015756067 cites W1964411117 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W1964611184 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2006303017 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2019874294 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2040375181 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2056709367 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2076610672 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2092603742 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2095283592 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2114616454 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2118141013 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2126771422 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2129654098 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2134747174 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2156677072 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2157576897 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2158712340 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2161823740 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2476871721 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W2496846218 @default.
- W2015756067 cites W4232161299 @default.
- W2015756067 doi "https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700005560" @default.
- W2015756067 hasPublicationYear "2009" @default.
- W2015756067 type Work @default.
- W2015756067 sameAs 2015756067 @default.
- W2015756067 citedByCount "11" @default.
- W2015756067 countsByYear W20157560672014 @default.
- W2015756067 countsByYear W20157560672016 @default.
- W2015756067 countsByYear W20157560672017 @default.
- W2015756067 countsByYear W20157560672018 @default.
- W2015756067 countsByYear W20157560672019 @default.
- W2015756067 countsByYear W20157560672021 @default.
- W2015756067 countsByYear W20157560672023 @default.
- W2015756067 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W2015756067 hasAuthorship W2015756067A5041251687 @default.
- W2015756067 hasAuthorship W2015756067A5061675894 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C126322002 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C143998085 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C144024400 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C149923435 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C179755657 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C2776256026 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C2777914695 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C2779134260 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C2779993553 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C29374701 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C2992694001 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C71924100 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConcept C72563966 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C126322002 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C143998085 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C144024400 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C149923435 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C179755657 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C2776256026 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C2777914695 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C2779134260 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C2779993553 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C29374701 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C2992694001 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C71924100 @default.
- W2015756067 hasConceptScore W2015756067C72563966 @default.
- W2015756067 hasIssue "S1" @default.
- W2015756067 hasLocation W20157560671 @default.
- W2015756067 hasOpenAccess W2015756067 @default.
- W2015756067 hasPrimaryLocation W20157560671 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W124747819 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W1964742033 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W1972936006 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W1996678912 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W2031798606 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W2088224164 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W2132303785 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W2146409628 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W89752966 @default.
- W2015756067 hasRelatedWork W2492004187 @default.
- W2015756067 hasVolume "15" @default.
- W2015756067 isParatext "false" @default.
- W2015756067 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W2015756067 magId "2015756067" @default.
- W2015756067 workType "article" @default.