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- W2016183128 abstract "Abstract In two papers at this conference, we showed influenza to be the cause of ∼70% of seasonal variation in human mortality. Seasonal mortality, therefore, is a surrogate for the force of influenza infection. We asked whether there might be a geographical pattern. Methods : Monthly all-cause mortality data were collected for 37 countries for 1962–1965, 1968–1971 and 1978–1981. Deaths above baseline of summer (DABS) were determined for three winters in each period, and the ratio to the summer baseline (SB) was calculated. The average of this ratio for each period was plotted against geographical factors. Spline fits were made of each plot. Results : Plots of average DABS/SB ratio versus latitude reveal an asymmetric bell shape. The outliers are instructive. Plots of DABS/SB against midwinter temperature are bell-shaped, also with instructive outliers. The height of both “bells” diminishes from 1960s to 1980s. Mortality curves of outlier countries, in the plot against temperature, exhibit a broadened winter peak. The peak of the curve lies between 5 and 9 °C and at 38–44° degrees latitude. Conclusions : A surrogate for force of influenza infection, seasonal mortality, varies smoothly with latitude and mid-winter temperature. The large variation argues that influenza control programs should be tailored locally." @default.
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- W2016183128 date "2001-10-01" @default.
- W2016183128 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2016183128 title "A global pattern for influenza activity" @default.
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- W2016183128 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0531-5131(01)00382-x" @default.
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