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- W2016643509 abstract "Summary There is a growing body of literature in our industry that addresses the use of portfolio-management techniques to find optimum mixes of projects that meet company goals while managing risk. These investigations usually start by describing risk in some manner, then proceed to illustrate how combinations of properties can be chosen that minimize this risk function subject to the other goals of the company. The probabilities of meeting individual metric targets in discrete time frames also can and should be quantified. This type of analysis is valid and useful, and it forms the backbone of project portfolio management. However, when dealing with risk and probability concepts, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that specific events will occur in time and that the portfolio must include enough flexibility to allow reaction to and recovery from these events. Specifically, acceptable portfolio results may depend on a small number of projects performing at a certain level. Because the chance of these important projects not performing at this level may be relatively small, the risk is deemed acceptable. If one of the projects subsequently fails to perform, what was once acceptable risk can become an exercise in salvaging a year or even saving a company. This paper shows how portfolio-management techniques can be used to plan a portfolio robust enough to recover from the potential failure of a significant project. These techniques can lead us to make investment choices today that might not be obvious if projects are evaluated solely with their expected values; those choices, if made judiciously, can provide insurance against a possible future downside. Portfolio analysis is a powerful technique, with applications far beyond the standard risk/reward exercise. The examples presented demonstrate how this analysis can be used to provide insight into the practical business questions that truly concern company management." @default.
- W2016643509 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2016643509 date "2006-12-20" @default.
- W2016643509 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2016643509 title "Insuring the Portfolio Against Large Project Failure" @default.
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- W2016643509 doi "https://doi.org/10.2118/84331-pa" @default.
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