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- W2017506358 abstract "Several securities and plannig firms publish a demonstration of the dramatically reduced returms that an investor would see if the investor were out of the market for the 10, 20, 30, or 40 best days over a time period such as 5 to 10 years. They claim this is a demonstration of the pitfalls of market timing. As a counterexample, this article shows the dramatically enhanced returns if the investor is in cash for a similar number of the worst days. The probabilities of picking the best or worst days out of a larger number of days are shown to be minuscule. In fact, the probability of winning a lottery, or even several lotteries in a row, is better than the probability of replicating the investment results these firms are discussing." @default.
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- W2017506358 date "2000-11-30" @default.
- W2017506358 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
- W2017506358 title "A Market Timing Myth" @default.
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- W2017506358 doi "https://doi.org/10.3905/joi.2000.319439" @default.
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