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- W2018412273 abstract "Abstract This paper presents a semi-probabilistic method for evaluating the reliability of tie-down braces for ocean going tow barges,-and a rational design method for tie-down braces compatible with effect of uncertainties in analysis and impact of result offailure. In receht years, study of response of an offshore towing system to random sea became more important than before because of the increased water depths for which platforms are now being designed. Since uncertainties are unavoidable in determination of forcing functions, structural behavior and tolerances within fabrication and installation methods, therefore the tool of engineering analysis should include concepts and methods for evaluating the significane of uncertainties and its implication on the design and performance of the towing system. Reliability analysis of the towing system is a multi-component analysis; tug, towlines, barge, tiedowns, and the structure (cargo) being in tow itself. The reliability, P, of a towing component can be expressed in termssof probability of failure, pf, defined as the probability of experiencing of this system component failure during the tow period (Pf = Probability [ Load> Resistance]). The reliability of a tow system can not be based on the weakest link of a chain approach, but it should reflect reliability of all the tow components in the system. This work is based on the following assumptions; i) a structural component can be in either safe or fail conditions, ii) tugboat propulsion and steering system can also be in either broken or unbroken states, and iii) occurrence of any storm along the tow route is independent of the others. The reliability model for tow system is described as a combined system, being composed of series and parallel system. The evaluation of probability of occurrence of a design sea state is based on the MARKOV model. The basic assumption used is that given the present state of a seaway, the past states have no influence on the future. The theorem of total probabilities is used to evaluate the system reliability. As an alternative approach, the POISSON model is also used in computing the frequency of occurrence of the design sea state. An optimum towing system design can be achieved using the reliability analysis in terms of initial cost, probability of failure, and cost of failure in relation with the time-lag in production, and impact on public confidence. Introduction The application of the structural reliability concept to offshore tow system requires descriptions of random variables; loads, and resistances for each individual component of the system. However, due to imperfect or non-existent data, the frequency distributions of loads and component resistances can not be predicted exactly Thus engineering judgement and subjective reasoning must be used in conjuction with available statistical data to modify the probabilities and produce an acceptable reliability assessment of the system." @default.
- W2018412273 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2018412273 creator A5075012233 @default.
- W2018412273 date "1981-05-04" @default.
- W2018412273 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2018412273 title "Reliability Analysis of Offshore Structures in Towing Operation" @default.
- W2018412273 doi "https://doi.org/10.4043/4162-ms" @default.
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