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- W2018647007 abstract "Abstract David Lewis's Principal Principle (PP) states that our credence in a single case follows from the general probability of all such cases. Against this stands the Challenge Argument (CA) – to show that the inference is justified. Recent (1) law-to-chance, (2) Bayesian, and (3) propensity theories of probability take up the challenge – but, I argue, fall short. Rather, we should understand (4) propensity via Aristotle's analysis of spontaneity (5) and probabilistic reasoning via the Anti-PP and (6) the practice of bundling one offs , where (7) forced bad-odds one offs illuminate how extensive a role luck plays in our lives." @default.
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- W2018647007 date "2015-04-21" @default.
- W2018647007 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W2018647007 title "Beyond the Magical Thinking Behind the Principal Principle" @default.
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- W2018647007 doi "https://doi.org/10.1017/s0031819115000121" @default.
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