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• W2021696182 abstract "Abstract. In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976), the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max)) of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a) used aa(min)=15.5 (12-month running mean), which occurred during March–May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max)=124±26 (12-month running mean). However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max)=117±26 (12-month running mean). However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min)=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max)=58.0±25.0." @default.
• W2021696182 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2021696182 creator A5087949757 @default.
• W2021696182 date "2010-07-16" @default.
• W2021696182 modified "2023-10-10" @default.
• W2021696182 title "Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate" @default.
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• W2021696182 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-28-1463-2010" @default.
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