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- W2022140903 abstract "[1] A set of 44-year seasonal ensemble coupled model forecasts performed with annually updated greenhouse gas concentrations is compared to a standard seasonal ensemble forecast experiment performed with fixed concentrations. The former shows more realistic temperature variability and better forecast quality. The improvement in model variability is due to a better simulation of climate trends and suggests that realistic initial conditions are not enough to reproduce this long-term variability. The better probabilistic forecast quality is mostly due to the increased ability to reliably discriminate the occurrence of events and non-events. These results are relevant for the improvement of operational seasonal forecasts and provide new evidence of the effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition." @default.
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- W2022140903 date "2006-01-01" @default.
- W2022140903 modified "2023-09-30" @default.
- W2022140903 title "Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts" @default.
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- W2022140903 doi "https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl025061" @default.
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