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- W2022216560 abstract "Studies on behavioral corporate finance have documented that overconfident managers invest more than their more rational peers. Reasons include that overconfidence reduces managers’ ability to perceive risk correctly. However, although it has been addressed in several theoretical models, the impact of overconfidence on firm success has received little empirical examination. Based on a unique 10-year panel dataset of German chief executive officers (CEOs) and their companies, we investigate the relationship between overconfidence and firm success. In line with principal agent theory and the hubris hypothesis, we find negative effects of CEO overconfidence during economic recessions. However, we also find a strong positive impact of CEO overconfidence on firm profitability and stock market performance during the early phases of the business cycle. These novel insights imply that overconfidence operates using different mechanisms in routine than in one-time situations. In particular it hints at heightened individual effort and work performance of overconfident individuals as described in psychological studies. Our findings suggest a reciprocal relationship between macroeconomic developments and microeconomic decision-making, a finding that may help to illuminate aggregated patterns such as herding and investment bubbles and the current economic and financial crisis." @default.
- W2022216560 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2022216560 date "2012-07-01" @default.
- W2022216560 modified "2023-10-04" @default.
- W2022216560 title "Impact of Biased Pecking Order Preferences on Firm Success in Real Business Cycles" @default.
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- W2022216560 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2012.708372" @default.
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