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- W2022378500 abstract "We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is, forecasters seem to intentionally scatter their forecasts around a consensus forecast. We further show that cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts with regard to anti-herding transmits onto cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecast accuracy. Specifically, we document that forecasters who herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who anti-herd." @default.
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- W2022378500 date "2011-12-01" @default.
- W2022378500 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
- W2022378500 title "Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding" @default.
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- W2022378500 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2011.09.002" @default.
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