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• W2022953713 abstract "Abstract This paper describes an interactive, conversational model for production forecasting and economic evaluation. The system is designed to provide 'Menu Selection' at each branching point to provide 'Menu Selection' at each branching point to allow the project analyst a choice of procedures for the program under study. The production forecasting capabilities range from the use of existing batch mode programs which employ reservoir engineering techniques applicable to various reservoir producing mechanisms to the use of decline curve producing mechanisms to the use of decline curve procedures, curve fits of historical data plus procedures, curve fits of historical data plus extrapolation using an appropriate decline curve method or extrapolations of historical data based on the user's engineering judgment. The system includes prompting, data preparation aids, and HELP commands for detailed preparation aids, and HELP commands for detailed explanations of data requirements and calculation procedures. Access to temporary and permanent data procedures. Access to temporary and permanent data bases, or input of selected data and ability to examine intermediate results between discrete steps in the calculation sequence are provided. Optional depreciation and tax procedures include those needed for U.S., U.K., Norway, Indonesia, etc. Also available are escalation methods, sensitivity analysis, composite and difference cases, optional formats for result summaries and case detail, graphical video display and/or hard copy of selected output. Access to the data bases for storage of input data and results can be controlled with optional levels of security. All Procedures meet internal standards with respect to computational methods for reservoir engineering and accounting methods for tax and financial basis economics evaluation. Results include all of the parameters normally used in economics analyses. Introduction Advances in the capabilities of the electronic computer have given the reservoir engineer an affordable tool for analysis of reservoir development and operating plans to select the procedure which provides highest production. However, with a continually changing economic environment with respect to costs - development, operating, financing and tax - it has become necessary to study development plans in depth. And, also, operating Plans need to be reviewed frequently to assure Plans need to be reviewed frequently to assure highest earnings. This paper describes the evolution and capabilities of an interactive system for production/ reserve forecasting and economic evaluation. The system utilizes many of the components of earlier computer program development efforts which began in 1963. The early efforts produced a special purpose program for each of the several types of production program for each of the several types of production and/or economic evaluation problems. Several of these programs are still in use, but none are interactive. All but one of them run in less than one minute on the computer but turnaround times range from one hour to overnight. The need for ability to make rapid analyses of a variety of alternate schemes including sensitivity studies of the effect of changes in construction costs, production rates, product prices and operating costs led to the decision to develop an interactive model. PLANNING THE SYSTEM PLANNING THE SYSTEM The planning phase of the project consisted of a series of in-depth interviews with those who would be using the results of the project for decision making as well as others who would be involved in estimating reserves, preparing production forecasts, determining equipment requirements, production forecasts, determining equipment requirements, estimating development, construction and operating costs, coordinating projects, preparing operating plans and economic studies. The purpose of these plans and economic studies. The purpose of these interviews was to identify the special needs of all the groups Involved in setting premises, making calculations and decisions. Each of these interviews produced a wish list of the information desired by each level and the minimum data required to produce the desired results." @default.
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• W2022953713 date "1981-10-04" @default.
• W2022953713 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W2022953713 title "An Interactive Production Forecasting And Economic Evaluation System" @default.
• W2022953713 doi "https://doi.org/10.2118/10328-ms" @default.
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