FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2023366596> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W2023366596 endingPage "2240" @default.
• W2023366596 startingPage "2211" @default.
• W2023366596 abstract "Seasonal predictability is investigated using a 15-year set of 4-month range, 9-member ensemble integrations from atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) involved in the European PROVOST project (PRediction Of climate Variations On Seasonal to interannual Time-scales). The integrations were performed using prescribed ideal (observed) sea surface temperatures (SSTs), therefore skill attained (referred to as ‘potential’ skill) represents an estimated upper bound on skill achievable with current models using predicted SSTs. Most analysis is presented for The Met. Office Unified Model (UM), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) T63 model (T63) and an 18-member multiple-model ensemble (JT2) constructed from these individual models. The benefits of higher-order multiple models (employing all four participating PROVOST AGCMs) are also investigated. Evaluation is focused on four assessment regions: the tropics; the northern extratropics; Europe; and North America. Probabilistic skill is assessed for the basic events: 3-month mean 850 hPa temperature above/below normal; 3-month mean precipitation accumulation above/below normal. Deterministic (ensemble mean) skill is also assessed. A summary of the main results is provided below. • Potential skill: Skill scores for months 1–3 forecast 850 hPa temperature and precipitation calculated for the entire tropical and northern extratropical regions indicate that, while skill is highest in the tropics, it is also available over the northern extratropics in all seasons. Scores for the northern extratropics are highest in spring (March-April-May; MAM). Scores for precipitation are generally lower than for 850 hPa temperature, however, there is evidence of substantial potential for rainy season predictions in some tropical regions. Over Europe and North America skill scores for 850 hPa temperature are (for at least one of the UM, T63 and JT2 models) comparable to those of the northern extratropics in all seasons. Peak skill occurs over Europe in MAM (as found for the northern extratropics). In contrast, peak skill over North America occurs in December-January-February (DJF), apparently as a result of enhanced predictability during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. In non-ENSO years skill over Europe and North America is similar, suggesting that the greater predictability often attributed to the North American region relative to Europe may apply only during ENSO events. Skill for months 2–4 is generally lower than for months 1–3, though there is evidence that during ENSO events levels of skill in the first three months are maintained into the second three months. For precipitation, best skill over Europe and North America is found in MAM and DJF, with little evidence of any skill over Europe in summer and autumn. • Skill prediction: Largest ENSO-related skill enhancements over North America are found in DJF and over Europe in the following (post-ENSO peak) MAM. Ensemble spread appears a useful indicator of ensemble-mean skill in some seasons over Europe and North America. Thus prospects for skill prediction appear promising, perhaps using strategies which combine information on both the state of ENSO and ensemble spread. • Benefits of multiple-model ensembles: Multiple-model ensembles enhance prediction capabilities, allowing the strengths of the individual AGCMs to be exploited without extensive a priori calibration of each model. The multiple-model ensembles frequently provide a filter for the more skilful individual model (the identity of which varies with season and region). The key factor determining the skill of the multiple model appears to be the skill of the most skilful component ensemble, and does not appear to be strongly connected with the increased ensemble size. • Use of persisted SST anomalies: Tests indicate that a substantial proportion of the skill achieved using observed SSTs is retained using persisted SST anomalies (SSTA) from the month preceding the initial date of the integration, indicating that use of persisted SSTA is a viable method for real-time seasonal prediction, at least for up to one season ahead. • User value: A methodology for linking technical forecast quality with financial value for users has been outlined using the relative operating characteristic and the user cost/loss matrix. Results indicate promising potential for user value of probabilistic seasonal predictions not only over tropical areas but also in some extratropical areas, including Europe." @default.
• W2023366596 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2023366596 creator A5006627610 @default.
• W2023366596 creator A5014464379 @default.
• W2023366596 creator A5034370558 @default.
• W2023366596 creator A5063950109 @default.
• W2023366596 creator A5071125165 @default.
• W2023366596 date "2010-08-20" @default.
• W2023366596 modified "2023-10-11" @default.
• W2023366596 title "An assessment of seasonal predictability using atmospheric general circulation models" @default.
• W2023366596 cites W1991436123 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2021510303 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2035759606 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2036541302 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2037371537 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2062914653 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2064194493 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2068732663 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2144668858 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2174705815 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2178127259 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W2180689110 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W4230649248 @default.
• W2023366596 cites W4241769043 @default.
• W2023366596 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712656712" @default.
• W2023366596 hasPublicationYear "2010" @default.
• W2023366596 type Work @default.
• W2023366596 sameAs 2023366596 @default.
• W2023366596 citedByCount "25" @default.
• W2023366596 countsByYear W20233665962014 @default.
• W2023366596 countsByYear W20233665962017 @default.
• W2023366596 countsByYear W20233665962020 @default.
• W2023366596 countsByYear W20233665962021 @default.
• W2023366596 countsByYear W20233665962023 @default.
• W2023366596 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W2023366596 hasAuthorship W2023366596A5006627610 @default.
• W2023366596 hasAuthorship W2023366596A5014464379 @default.
• W2023366596 hasAuthorship W2023366596A5034370558 @default.
• W2023366596 hasAuthorship W2023366596A5063950109 @default.
• W2023366596 hasAuthorship W2023366596A5071125165 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C107054158 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C132651083 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C134097258 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C141452985 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C147947694 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C153294291 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C168754636 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C170061395 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C18903297 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C197640229 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C205649164 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C39432304 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C49204034 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C51865526 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C72319357 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C86803240 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConcept C91586092 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C105795698 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C107054158 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C127313418 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C132651083 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C134097258 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C141452985 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C147947694 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C153294291 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C168754636 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C170061395 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C18903297 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C197640229 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C205649164 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C33923547 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C39432304 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C49204034 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C51865526 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C72319357 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C86803240 @default.
• W2023366596 hasConceptScore W2023366596C91586092 @default.
• W2023366596 hasIssue "567" @default.
• W2023366596 hasLocation W20233665961 @default.
• W2023366596 hasOpenAccess W2023366596 @default.
• W2023366596 hasPrimaryLocation W20233665961 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W1993932454 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W1999407291 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W2023366596 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W2059264034 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W2064050929 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W2095447857 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W2103966682 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W2731203953 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W3031145018 @default.
• W2023366596 hasRelatedWork W3199366691 @default.
• W2023366596 hasVolume "126" @default.
• W2023366596 isParatext "false" @default.
• W2023366596 isRetracted "false" @default.
• W2023366596 magId "2023366596" @default.

• next