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• W2023408201 startingPage "e17835" @default.
• W2023408201 abstract "We analyse data from the early epidemic of H1N1-2009 in New Zealand, and estimate the reproduction number R. We employ a renewal process which accounts for imported cases, illustrate some technical pitfalls, and propose a novel estimation method to address these pitfalls. Explicitly accounting for the infection-age distribution of imported cases and for the delay in transmission dynamics due to international travel, R was estimated to be (95% confidence interval: 107,1.47). Hence we show that a previous study, which did not account for these factors, overestimated R. Our approach also permitted us to examine the infection-age at which secondary transmission occurs as a function of calendar time, demonstrating the downward bias during the beginning of the epidemic. These technical issues may compromise the usefulness of a well-known estimator of R--the inverse of the moment-generating function of the generation time given the intrinsic growth rate. Explicit modelling of the infection-age distribution among imported cases and the examination of the time dependency of the generation time play key roles in avoiding a biased estimate of R, especially when one only has data covering a short time interval during the early growth phase of the epidemic." @default.
• W2023408201 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2023408201 creator A5010630440 @default.
• W2023408201 creator A5042103088 @default.
• W2023408201 date "2011-05-26" @default.
• W2023408201 modified "2023-10-12" @default.
• W2023408201 title "Early Estimation of the Reproduction Number in the Presence of Imported Cases: Pandemic Influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand" @default.
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• W2023408201 doi "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017835" @default.
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