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- W2023491491 abstract "Abstract On the basis of previous research (S. J. H. McCann, 1997), a simple heuristic was developed that can immediately estimate a newly elected American president's chances of being rated above or below average by historians in the future. A high popular vote victory margin in A. M. Schlesinger, Jr.'s (1986) public purpose phases or a low one in his private interest phases predicts above average greatness; the converse predicts below average greatness. Using G. M. Maranell's (1970) greatness ratings, correct “postdictions” occurred for 82% of the 33 elections from 1824 to 1964 and for 88% of the elections from 1900 to 1964. On the basis of first-time poll victories, success rates were 86% from 1824 to 1964 and 100% from 1900 to 1964. R. K. Murray and T. H. Blessing's (1983) greatness ratings yielded corresponding success rates of 76%, 76%, 76%, and 91%, respectively. The results are important theoretically because no relationship between victory margin and judged greatness was previously known to exist." @default.
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- W2023491491 date "1999-01-01" @default.
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- W2023491491 title "A Simple Method for Predicting Presidential Greatness From Popular Vote Victory Margin" @default.
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- W2023491491 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/00223989909599717" @default.
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