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- W2023842022 abstract "A hypothesis is proposed and tested concerning the existence of the following causal pathway. Some event, such as a war, creates a shortage of whichever resource is currently the most critical limit for a society. That event drives up prices of that resource more than those of other resources or manufactured goods. After a lag, there is a shift of capital investment to industries that had the highest such price increase. After a further lag, there is an excessive ratio of supply to demand in industries which had that elevated capital investment, and a price collapse. In industries from which capital had been shifted, shortages relative to long run trajectories drive up prices relative to wages. These phenomena in combination cause layoffs, then a depression. The nation or nations in the world which have greatest internal strains produced by depression or serious recession, then use an armaments buildup to stimulate their economies. This sharply increases the likelihood of the next war, and the cycle repeats. The steps in this hypothesis are tested by determining the proportion of the variance in system variables that can be accounted for using nonlinear equations to describe growth and wavelike behavior of the United States since the mid-nineteeth century. Parameters were estimated using the iterative Matyas and Simplex curve-fitting algorithms." @default.
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- W2023842022 date "1989-05-01" @default.
- W2023842022 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2023842022 title "Evidence for the role of energy resources in producing long waves in the United States economy" @default.
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- W2023842022 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8009(89)90004-9" @default.
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