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- W2027717820 abstract "We consider Sims's (2008) argument that robust policy making requires that policy models be treated as “probability models”. In a welfare-based setting, we estimate by Bayesian methods a number of variants of a New Keynesian macroeconomic model and use both the model odds and posterior densities to design robust interest rate rules consisting of an inflation-forecast-based rule and a wage-targeting one. Each are shown to have distinct robustness qualities and distinct implications for the probability-models approach. To ensure feasible policy, we further impose that rules are stable, determinate and lower-bound compatible. Our results have important implications for the design, evaluation and analysis of the probability models approach to robust monetary policy making." @default.
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- W2027717820 date "2012-02-01" @default.
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- W2027717820 title "Probability models and robust policy rules" @default.
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- W2027717820 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.08.005" @default.
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