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• W2033742743 abstract "Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Gabi Ben-Dor, Hillel Frisch, Avi Kober, Shmuel Sandler, and Max Singer for their useful comments, and Tim McKinley for his important research assistance Notes 1. For the reports, see “Human Development Reports,” http://middleeast.about.com/od/middleeast101/f/arab-human-development.htm; regarding the Arab predicament, see also R. Stephen Humphreys, Between Memory and Desire: The Middle East in a Troubled Age (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1999). 2. Stephen M. Walt, “Revolution and War,” World Politics 44, no. 3 (April 1992): pp. 321–368. 3. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, “Democratization and the Danger of War,” International Security 20, no. 1 (Summer 1995): pp. 5–38. 4. For an analysis of this phenomenon, see Robert I. Rothberg, ed., When States Fail: Causes and Consequences (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004). 5. Hillel Frisch, “Why monarchies persist: balancing between internal and external vulnerability,” Review of International Studies 37, no. 1 (September 2010): pp. 167–184. 6. For official remarks from Ankara and Tehran, see “Egypt uprising is an Islamic ‘awakening’: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” thestar.com, February 4, 2011, http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/933539--egypt-uprising-is-an-islamic-awakening-ayatollah-ali-khamenei; Nanore Barsoumian, “‘I Don't Bear a Hidden Agenda’: Erdogan Lays Out Vision for New Middle East,” The Armenian Weekly, September 27, 2011, http://www.armenianweekly.com/2011/09/27/erdogan-lays-out-vision-for-new-middle-east/; and Jeffrey Fleishman and Ned Parker, “Mubarak says he won't seek reelection but will stay in office ‘for the next few months’,” Los Angeles Times, February 1, 2011, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/01/world/la-fg-egypt-crowd-20110202. 7. Anthony Shadid, “Unrest Around the Arab World Endangers Turkey's Newfound Influence,” New York Times, May 4, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/world/europe/05turkey.html. 8. See Bernard Lewis, “The Roots of Muslim Rage,” The Atlantic (September 1990), http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1990/09/the-roots-of-muslim-rage/4643/; Barry Rubin, “The Real Roots of Arab Anti-Americanism,” Foreign Affairs 81, no. 6 (November/December 2002). 9. Daniel W. Drezner, “Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy? Why We Need Doctrines in Uncertain Times,” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 4 (July/August 2011): p. 58. 10. Douglas Hamilton, “Israel shocked by Obama's ‘betrayal’ of Mubarak,” Reuters, January 31, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/us-egypt-israel-usa-idUSTRE70U53720110131; Ari Shavit, “Obama's betrayal/As goes Mubarak, so goes U.S. might,” Haaretz, January 31, 2011, http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/obama-s-betrayal-as-goes-mubarak-so-goes-u-s-might-1.340244. 11. For such criticism, see David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, “U.S.-Saudi Tensions Intensify with Mideast Turmoil,” New York Times, March 14, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/middleeast/15saudi.html?pagewanted=all. 12. Daniel Byman, “Israel's Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring,” Washington Quarterly 34, no. 3 (Summer 2011): pp. 123–136, http://csis.org/publication/twq-israels-pessimistic-view-arab-spring. 13. See Arnold Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration: Essays on International Politics (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1962). 14. See Yehezkel Dror's discussion of mega-trends in the 21st century in Israeli Statecraft: National Security Challenges and Responses (New York: Routledge, 2011), pp. 37–53. 15. See Herb Keinon, “Anti-Normalization Forces Gaining Strength in Jordan,” The Jerusalem Post, August 9, 2011, http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=233133; Eli Lake, “Muslim Brotherhood seeks end to Israel Treaty,” The Washington Times, February 3, 2011, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/3/muslim-brotherhood-seeks-end-to-israel-treaty/ 16. For a refutation of the “American decline” arguments, see Robert J. Lieber, Power & Willpower in The American Future: Why the U.S. Is Not Destined to Decline (London and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012). 17. Yaakov Katz, “Hamas sets up rocket production line in Sinai,” Jerusalem Post, December 11, 2011, http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=248948. 18. “Israel says Gaza gets anti-plane arms from Libya,” Reuters, August 29, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/29/us-palestinians-israel-libya-idUSTRE77S3UO20110829. 19. Barbara Opall-Rome, “Senior Israeli Commander Sees Danger in Syrian Collapse,” Defense News, December 12, 2011, http://www.defensenews.com/article/20111212/DEFFEAT04/112120319/Senior-Israeli-Commander-Sees-Danger-Syrian-Collapse. 20. Shlomi Diaz, “Homefront commander under fire for grim security assessment,” Israel Hayom, September 6, 2011, http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=986. 21. Efraim Inbar, “Israeli-Turkish Tensions and Their International Ramifications,” Orbis 55, no. 1 (Winter 2011): pp. 132–146, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/efraim_inbar/IsraeliTurkishTensionsArticle.pdf. 22. Adrian Blomfield, “Turkey to Provide Armed Escort for New Gaza Flotilla,” Telegraph, September 9, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/8752189/Turkey-to-provide-armed-escort-for-new-Gaza-flotilla.html 23. “Turkey Threatens Cyprus Over Natural Gas,” September 13, 2011, http://in-other-news.com/2011/Turkey_threatens_Cyprus_over_natural_gas 24. James M. Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, “After Iran Gets the Bomb,” Foreign Affairs 89, no. 2 (March/April 2010); and Efraim Inbar, “The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran,” Middle East Review of International Affairs 10, no. 1 (March 2006), http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2006/issue1/jv10no1a7.html. 25. Uzi Rubin, “The Missile Threat from Gaza: From Nuisance to Strategic Threat,” BESA Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 91, December 2011, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/MSPS91.pdf. 26. Yaakov Lifschutz, “Israel's Military Industries,” BESA Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 92 (Hebrew), December 2011. 27. See for example, Gidi Weitz, “Barak to Haaretz: Iran won't drop nuclear bomb on Israel,” Haaretz, May 5, 2011, http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/barak-to-haaretz-iran-won-t-drop-nuclear-bomb-onisrael-1.359870; Yossi Melman, “Report: Mysterious blast in Iran's Isfahan damaged key nuclear site,” Haaretz, November 30, 2011, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-mysterious-blast-in-iran-s-isfahan-damagedkey-nuclear-site-1.398671; Tobias Buck, “Ex-spymasters oppose Iran attack,” Financial Times, November 11, 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fbbe0342-0c57-11e1-88c6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fIqhg81d; and Yaakov Lappin, “‘Strike fallout can never be as bad as nuclear Iran’,” Jerusalem Post, November 23, 2011, http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=246745. Additional informationNotes on contributorsEfraim InbarEfraim Inbar is a professor of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University and director of the Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies. The Tikva Fund generously supported this research" @default.
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