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- W203467420 abstract "Buruli ulcer is a neglected tropical skin disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans (MU) and is highly endemic in West Africa. The d isease infects the skin and subcutaneous tissues, resulting in indolent ulcers, with lesions appearing mainly in the limbs. If left untreated BU may lead to extensive soft tissue destruction, with inflammat ion extending to deep fascia if patient do not report early for treat ment. The paper applied Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model to examine the dynamics of Buruli u lcer d ieases and also to make monthly three years forecasts. Monthly Buruli ulcer case data from 2005 to 2011 was obtained from Ashanti regional Disease Control Unit, Ku masi and analysed emp loying ARIMA. The results showed that in general, the trend o f Buru li u lcer disease peaked during 2006. The analysis revealed that ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was the best model for forecasting Buru li ulcer disease. The forecast showed that the disease will continue to spread at faster rate then the present situation unless sometime is done now." @default.
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- W203467420 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W203467420 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W203467420 title "Forecasting Buruli ulcer Disease in Ashanti Region of Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach" @default.
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