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• W2039735033 abstract "Abstract This paper discusses the functions - production, transportation, processing and marketing - required to supply petroleum in response processing and marketing - required to supply petroleum in response to the demand generated in the markets of the free world, and it emphasizes their interdependence. It also appraises the political, economic, and technical factors that have recently caused significant changes in the historical supply-demand pattern. Finally, it attempts to project future trends in supply and demand. Introduction In February, the Los Angeles area suffered a severe earthquake - over 60 people were killed, and property damage amounting to several hundred million dollars was incurred. This earthquake was not predicted although many scientists were actually making local stress measurements for that specific purpose. The principle reason for this failure was that, the quake was caused by principle reason for this failure was that, the quake was caused by movement along the San Gabriel Fault - not along the San Andreas Fault, where the measurements were being made. Following the major quake, after shocks were felt for several months before a state of unstable equilibrium was finally attained. This seismic phenomenon, in a very real sense, has its analog in the international petroleum industry; i.e., we can observe the stresses that are present, but we can predict neither the location of the epicenter nor the intensity of the shock. Stresses were evident last fall in Libya, the Arabian Gulf and Venezuela; however, the major disturbance did not occur until the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) confronted the major international oil companies in Teheran during February of this year. Aftershocks have since been felt in Libya, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, and elsewhere. As a result of these shocks, the roles of the major international oil companies, as well as those of the producing and consuming countries, have been drastically altered - OPEC has assumed the initiative; the influence of the majors has begun to decline significantly and the importing countries have started to react. These changes will affect pricing, price stability and, ultimately, energy policies throughout the world. Discussion The international petroleum industry cannot be characterized by a simple supply-demand relationship. Rather, it is a highly complex system composed of interrelated functional elements - production, transportation, processing and marketing - which production, transportation, processing and marketing - which operates within an extremely volatile economic-political environment. Invariably, oil is produced at widely scattered locations and transported with varying degrees of difficulty - to the centers of consumption where it is processed and marketed. The capital requirements of the international petroleum industry are enormous owing to the continuous growth in demand; however, this needed capital must be generated while satisfying the conflicting demands of the producing and consuming countries; i.e., stable, adequate revenues on one hand and stable, cheap supplies of energy on the other hand. During the last decade, free-world consumption has doubled. In response to this increased demand, the necessary sources of supply were found and developed; simultaneously, transportation, processing and marketing facilities were provided. The total processing and marketing facilities were provided. The total cost of this expansion was about $150 billion. Now, since it is apparent that consumption will continue to grow at approximately the same rate, demand will double again over the next decade - accompanied by the obvious need for more and more capital. Let us concentrate on the 5-year period from 1964 to 1969 and observe some of the trends that have developed. Since petroleum demand is notoriously inelastic, it is appropriate that we first consider the controlling function - marketing. Because it reflects consumption, it controls upstream expenditures. (See Table 1.) The very rapid growth of consumption throughout the Eastern Hemisphere is apparent. SPEE P. 19" @default.
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• W2039735033 title "Petroleum Supply and Demand" @default.
• W2039735033 doi "https://doi.org/10.2118/3310-ms" @default.
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