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- W2040335022 abstract "Abstract The desired production of banknotes is the product of the demand for banknotes at any particular time, and the average lifetime. While the latter might be relatively constant, the first shows a steady increase over time. Various techniques are available to generate forecasts of banknote demand. They have in common that they are extrapolative methods which assume that the future may be derived from the pattern of the past. One major class of forecasting methods of this type are time series models, which are particularly useful in a limited information environment. Causal or regression models provide another class of forecasting methods and are particularly valuable for annual or medium-term prediction, and in cases where explanatory variables are controlled by the policy maker. Contrary to these quantitative models, qualitative forecasting methods do not require as many data but are sometimes very beneficial in guiding intuitive thinking about future developments. The present paper presents some examples of forecasting models studied at the Netherlands Bank as well as some results obtained from qualitative research undertaken in the recent past." @default.
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- W2040335022 date "1981-03-01" @default.
- W2040335022 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2040335022 title "Forecasting the demand for banknotes: some empirical results for the Netherlands" @default.
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- W2040335022 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(81)90229-0" @default.
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