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• W2041139396 abstract "ing from refinancing, originations can be thought of as the marginal addition to the share in the stock, and the share of the stock can be thought of as the average. Clearly, the secular trend in the stock is mostly the average catching up with the marginal after a break in the marginal in1982. However, originations are not quite the marginal because they do not include payoffs. The more volatile line in the figure depicts the GSE share of growth in the stock, which does correspond to the marginal change in share. While it is more volatile than the origination percentage, it tells a similar story: a break in the early 80s and a recent decline. The difference between marginal and average is important. There is very little trading in used mortgages; mortgages are typically purchased by the GSEs shortly after origination and go into securities. So GSE activity and effect on the market is best viewed in terms of purchases of newly originated loans. Table 1 shows recent changes in product mix in the mortgage market. The key trend since 2001 has been a sharp decline in share of conventional conforming loans (those which are eligible for GSE purchase) and a sharp increase in the share of riskier subprime, AltA (loans between “prime” and subprime) and home equity loans. This has been 7 It is straightforward to show that GSE share of the outstanding stock will rise or fall depending on whether or not the GSE share of the increase in mortgage stock bigger or smaller than the GSE share of the stock. If GSEs have the same principle pay down rate (akin to depreciation rate) as the market as a whole, then share growth will depend on whether or not the GSE share of new originations is bigger or smaller than the GSE share of the stock. Otherwise there needs to be an adjustment for pay down rate differences. In the short run this adjustment can be important, especially in heavy refinancing booms, in part because the GSEs have relatively more fixed rate mortgages, which have more interest sensitive pay down rates than adjustable rate mortgages. 8 The changes in MDO or GSE stock are the difference between two numbers, purchases (or originations) and pay downs, which are both subject to measurement error. The ratio of these numbers can be expected to be quite volatile, especially in years when growth is low. Hence, the year to year volatility is artificially large." @default.
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• W2041139396 date "2007-01-01" @default.
• W2041139396 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
• W2041139396 title "Government-Sponsored Enterprises and Resource Allocation: Some Implications for Urban Economies" @default.
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• W2041139396 doi "https://doi.org/10.1353/urb.2007.0010" @default.
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