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- W204674623 abstract "The relevant time horizon for pension policy is several decades. Therefore we know that the projected future demographic and economic trends that are used in projections are not likely to be realized. This leads to several interesting questions. How large is the uncertainty in pension variables, such as contribution rates and replacement rates? How the uncertainty affects the policy targets set and the policy instruments used? Is it possible to find and test policies or strategies, which affect both the expected value of the target variables and their distribution in a desired way? Answering these questions necessitates the use of models, which describe the interaction of demographics, economic decisions and pension system rules. We present three examples, which show how uncertainty may be assessed. The first one compares the recent pension expenditure projections of Economic Policy Committee with the ones produced in DEMWEL project utilizing stochastic population projections. The EPC quantifications of deviations from the expected outcomes turn out to be small compared with those obtained in the stochastic analysis. The next applications deal with evaluation of actual pension policy implemented recently in Finland. The first studied policy reform is introduction of longevity adjustment, which cuts the pensions if life expectancy increases. The second policy introduces an amendment to prefunding rules, which allows more risky portfolios to pension funds. Both reforms are aimed to improve financial sustainability, but we also show how they influence adequacy and intergenerational redistribution." @default.
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- W204674623 date "2007-01-01" @default.
- W204674623 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W204674623 title "Financial sustainability of pension systems under uncertainty 1" @default.
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