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• W2046945886 abstract "We use output from a hindcast simulation (1958–2007) of an ocean biogeochemical and ecological model to inform an observational strategy for detection of a weakening Southern Ocean CO 2 sink from surface ocean pCO 2 data. Particular emphasis is placed on resolving disparate conclusions about the Southern Ocean CO 2 sink that have been drawn from surface ocean pCO 2 observation studies in the past. We find that long‐term trends in can be used as a proxy for changes in the strength of the CO 2 sink but must be interpreted with caution, as they are calculated from small differences in the oceanic and atmospheric pCO 2 trends. Large interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in ΔpCO 2 persists throughout the simulation, suggesting that one must consider a range of start and end years for trend analysis before drawing conclusions about changes in the CO 2 sink. Winter‐mean CO 2 flux trends are statistically indistinguishable from annual‐mean trends, arguing for inclusion of all available data in future analyses of the CO 2 sink. The weakening of the CO 2 sink emerges during the observed period of our simulation (1981–2007) in the subpolar seasonally stratified biome (4°C < average climatological temperature < 9°C); the weakening is most evident during periods with positive trends in the Southern Annular Mode. With perfect temporal and spatial coverage, 13 years of pCO data would be required to detect a weakening CO 2 sink in this biome. Given available data, it is not yet possible to detect a weakening of the Southern Ocean CO 2 sink with much certainty, due to imperfect data coverage and high variability in Southern Ocean surface pCO 2 ." @default.
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• W2046945886 date "2015-04-01" @default.
• W2046945886 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W2046945886 title "Observing multidecadal trends in Southern Ocean CO₂uptake: What can we learn from an ocean model?" @default.
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• W2046945886 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gb004933" @default.
• W2046945886 hasPublicationYear "2015" @default.
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