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- W2050036315 abstract "A multiplicative seasonal forecasting model for cumulative events in which, conditional on end- of-season totals being given and seasonal shape being known, it is shown that events occurring within the season are multinomially distributed is presented. The model uses the information contained in the arrival of new events to obtain a posterior distribution for end-of-season totals. Bayesian forecasts are obtained recursively in two stages: first, by predicting the expected number and variance of event counts in future intervals within the remaining season, and then by predicting revised means and variances for end-of-season totals based on the most recent forecast error." @default.
- W2050036315 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2050036315 date "1987-01-01" @default.
- W2050036315 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2050036315 title "Bayesian Forecasting With Stable Seasonal Patterns" @default.
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- W2050036315 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1987.10509562" @default.
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