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- W2051212605 abstract "Errors in the National Meteorological Center's 72 h spectral model predictions of 500 mb cyclones and anticyclones during the 1983/84 cool season and during the autumn of 1987 are stratified according to the observed duration of the forecast system. In the 1983/84 sample, systems (especially cyclones) forming after the initialization time but before the verification time of the 72 h forecast run are characterized by significantly greater central 500 mb height error (forecast minus observed) than those which form at or before the forecast initialization time. In the 1987 sample, after revisions in the spectral model, this trend is no longer found. Furthermore, though the bias in the forecast central height error for 500 mb cyclones was significantly positive in the 1983/84 sample, it was not significant for most systems in the 1987 sample. For the 500 mb anticyclones, the bias in the forecast central height error was reversed from significantly positive for most systems in the 1983/84 sample to significantly negative for most systems in the 1987 sample. In an illustrative example of this recent negative forecast bias, the model is shown to consistently underpredict the central heights in a 500 mb anticyclone throughout its lifetime. The coincidence of this anticyclone with an intense upstream surface cyclone suggests the importance of correct surface cyclone simulations in the predicted evolutions of 500 mb systems at the 72 h forecast range and beyond." @default.
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- W2051212605 date "1989-04-01" @default.
- W2051212605 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2051212605 title "Predictability of 500 mb Cyclones and Anticyclones and Anticyclones as a Function of Their Persistence" @default.
- W2051212605 doi "https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<0887:pomcaa>2.0.co;2" @default.
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