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• W2052174907 abstract "The solar cycle (quantified by sunspot number) has been suggested to be a contributing factor in tropical cyclone frequency and/or intensity, with an active sun (more sunspots) causing heightened activity. Here we analyze the relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and extreme minimum and maximum sunspot years. Sunspot numbers are tested with other common predictors to determine their utility in seasonal tropical cyclone prediction. It is found that the complete sunspot cycle is not consistently related to basin-wide tropical cyclone activity ( r = 0.024). However, sunspot extreme years show stronger correlations, with minimum years having the highest correlations to tropical cyclone frequency. Minimum sunspot years and the AMO index can combine to explain more than 54 percent of the variations in total tropical cyclones and nearly 46 percent of the variation in tropical cyclone days. Solar cycle extremes should be considered for more accurate seasonal tropical cyclone predictions. Abstract: El ciclo solar (cuantificado por el numero de manchas solares) se ha sugerido como un factor que contribuye a la frecuencia y/o intensidad de ciclones tropicales, con un sol activo (mas manchas solares) provocando una mayor actividad. A continuacion se analiza la relacion entre los ciclones tropicales del Atlantico norte y los anos minimos y maximos extremos de manchas solares. El numero de manchas solares se prueban con otros predictores comunes para determinar su utilidad en la prediccion estacional de ciclones tropicales. Se ha encontrado que el ciclo completo de las manchas solares no es coherente en relacion a toda la actividad ciclonica tropical ( r = 0,024). Sin embargo, anos de manchas solares extremos muestran fuertes correlaciones, con anos de minimo teniendo las mayores correlaciones con la fre-cuencia de los ciclones tropicales. Los anos minimos de manchas solares y el indice AMO se combinan para explicar mas del 54 por ciento de las variaciones en el total de ciclones tropicales y casi 46 por ciento de la variacion en el dia de ciclones tropicales. Los extremos del ciclo solar se deben considerar para predicciones mas precisas de los ciclones tropicales estacionales." @default.
• W2052174907 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2052174907 date "2013-01-01" @default.
• W2052174907 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2052174907 title "Solar Cycle Extremes as a Seasonal Predictor of Atlantic-Basin Tropical Cyclones" @default.
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• W2052174907 doi "https://doi.org/10.1353/sgo.2013.0007" @default.
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