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- W2055861926 abstract "ABSTRACT Population developments are inherently unpredictable, even for a period of a few years. Therefore, in order to produce the necessary demographic numbers, the notion of a “forecast” is often used. But official population forecasts rely on deterministic models, that cannot quantify uncertainty. This paper discusses methods to deal with uncertainty in current population forecasting. Sources of uncertainty are identified, and the role of variant forecasts is discussed: alternative futures or uncertainty variants? We treat the issue of growing uncertainty with increasing forecasting horizon: forecast or mere projection? Some ideas are given on the presentation and use of population forecasting results as inputs to planning. Forecasting practice and forecasting errors in The Netherlands serve as an illustration. Finally, major research topics are identified. Most prominent is the forecast of forecasting errors, in particular the separation between the impact of forecasting methodology and that of current demographic trends upon forecasting accuracy." @default.
- W2055861926 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2055861926 date "1986-03-01" @default.
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- W2055861926 title "THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF POPULATION TRENDS" @default.
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- W2055861926 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/07349165.1986.9725778" @default.
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