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- W2056522983 abstract "Background: Numerous studies have investigated the 1918 pandemic (“Spanish flu”) during the past years, with the implicit hypothesis that it could be a model of a possible future pandemic. By contrast very little is known on the pandemic that occurred 30 years before, in 1889–1890 (the “Russian flu”). Data, Methods: We have retrieved a report to the French Ministry of Health published in 1891 which gives the weekly death rates in 33 European cities from Russia, eastern and western Europe between November 2, 1889 and February 8, 1890. The base mortality was defined as the mean values of the 2 first and 2 last weeks for each of the 33 cities. The size and timing of the peak values were computed. The rate of the exponential burst in each city was used to compute the reproduction rate, assuming a generation time of 3 days. Results: The spread of the pandemic was extremely rapid, with a starting point at St Petersburg (peak date = December 7. 1889). The UK and Scottish cities were hit only 6 weeks later. The mean speed of the front wave was approximately 300 Km/Week. The mean basic reproduction rate was 2.15 (range: 2.04–2.32). The mean peak value of the mortality curves was +105% above the base value (range 10%: Christiania to 221%: Brunn). The highest reproduction rates were observed at Stuttgart, St Petersburg, and Amsterdam. Conclusion: The rapid dissemination of the influenza in the late 19th century shows unequivocally that even if feasible, the limitation of air transportation in case of a pandemic would be ineffective. The R values of the 1889–1890 epidemic are in line with those of the 1918 pandemic, which supports the use of R values around 2 in prospective models of the pandemic." @default.
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- W2056522983 date "2008-12-01" @default.
- W2056522983 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W2056522983 title "Historical Analysis of the 1889–1890 Pandemic in Europe" @default.
- W2056522983 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2008.05.237" @default.
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