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- W2058493899 abstract "This thesis examines the IMF approach to macroeconomicadjustment in Egypt with, firstly, an empirical assessment ofthe analytical foundations of this approach and, secondly, theconstruction and estimation of a small macroeconomic model ofthe Egyptian economy over the period 1952-86.Following an overall appraisal of Egyptian macroeconomicperformance, with and without the application of Fundfinancial-supported adjustment programmes (conditionality),the main part of the thesis provides empirical evidence on thedeterminants of aggregate foreign trade, money supply andmoney demand and inflation.Examination of determinants of foreign trade shows that demandfor exports is price-elastic, while demand for imports isincome-elastic. However, it appears that Egypt's exportsupply is constrained by capacity. Consequently, devaluationmay not play a substantial role towards improving the tradeaccount.Study of the monetary sector reveals that the money supply isbest regarded as endogenous, contrary to the assumption madein the Fund approach. Assuming an endogenous money supply,both stock adjustment-expectations and error correction modelsof money demand behaviour reveal a well-fitting function.The IMF view of inflation in LDCs is that it is essentiallya monetary phenomenon, i.e. caused by an excess supply ofmoney. Evidence is provided to show that, in addition tomoney supply growth, structural bottlenecks and expectationsare also influential in the inflation process in Egypt and thebasic IMF view of inflation should be modified accordingly.Finally, in order to explain changes in income, prices andbalance of payments in Egypt, a small aggregate macroeconomicmodel is constructed and estimated. Unlike the conventionalIMF model, real output is not taken to be predetermined.Estimates of the structural parameters as well as modelsimulations suggest that the model performs well in trackingthe historical values of the dependent variables." @default.
- W2058493899 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2058493899 date "1990-01-01" @default.
- W2058493899 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2058493899 title "An empirical investigation of the I.M.F. : approach towards macroeconomic adjustment in Egypt" @default.
- W2058493899 hasPublicationYear "1990" @default.
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