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• W2060421504 abstract "Focusing on predictability of the Kuroshio meandering, we have done an ensemble forecast experiment; the application of the method to the problem addressed seems to be the first comprehensive attempt in the community of physical oceanography. By assimilating sea surface height anomaly into an ocean general circulation model in the preceding 40‐day period, the observed Kuroshio meandering manifested south of Japan in November 1999 was successfully predicted 2 months before the event. The experiment yields a forecasting skill of the Kuroshio meander position for 60 days in the sense that the RMS error does not exceed the magnitude of the model climatic variation and those obtained from the non‐assimilated simulation and persistence. In addition to a single trajectory forecast experiment, ensemble forecasts were conducted using 10 perturbed initial states generated by the breeding method. The predicted states realized as the ensemble members of the 80‐day forecast are classified into two categories: large and non‐large meander. It is found that the intensity of an anticyclonic eddy in the initial state seems to play a key role in selecting one of the two states." @default.
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• W2060421504 creator A5046138255 @default.
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• W2060421504 date "2005-10-01" @default.
• W2060421504 modified "2023-10-13" @default.
• W2060421504 title "Ensemble forecast of the Kuroshio meandering" @default.
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• W2060421504 doi "https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jc002426" @default.
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