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• W2061207233 abstract "We consider a class of Bayesian dynamic models that involve switching among various regimes. As an example we produce a model for a runoff time series exhibiting pulsatile behavior. This model is a mixture of three autoregressive models which accommodate “rising,” “falling,” and “normal” states in the runoff process. The mechanism for switching among regimes is given by a three-state Markov chain whose transition probabilities are modeled on the basis both of past runoff values and of a time series of rainfall data. We adopt the Bayesian approach and use the Gibbs sampler in the numerical analyses. A study of a daily runoff series from Lake Taupo, New Zealand, is given." @default.
• W2061207233 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2061207233 date "1999-02-01" @default.
• W2061207233 modified "2023-10-13" @default.
• W2061207233 title "Markov switching time series models with application to a daily runoff series" @default.
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• W2061207233 doi "https://doi.org/10.1029/98wr02686" @default.
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