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- W2065862521 abstract "The paper by Tanaka (2006) provides ample evidence of his trademark qualities as a scholar: it is articulate, enlightening, and thought-provoking. In a nutshell, the paper makes the following claims: depending on how its size is calculated, China's economy has already surpassed or will soon surpass that of Japan and will eventually be larger than the USA. This naturally raises the questions of whether a regional power shift will take place, and whether this shift will entail armed conflict. Tanaka argues that careful handling of the North Korea issue and, more importantly, the Taiwan Question will likely forestall military confrontation in the region and make possible the “peaceful rise” of China. What does the “peaceful rise” of China mean? Tanaka sketches two scenarios: one is of a unilateralist and nationalist China competing with other global powers; and the other is of a multilateralist and post-modern China embedded in an increasingly integrated East Asia that is open to North America and Europe. He dismisses popular and scholarly debates that are organized around the question of whether a rising China is “hegemonic” or “defensive.” As long as China rises peacefully, it will be a great power, but China is not likely to replace the USA as the global and/or regional hegemon. The crucial issue is whether China tilts toward a unilateralist, nationalist position, or a multilateralist and East Asia-embedded position. Tanaka believes that China's response and future very much depend on internal developments within China, but will also be determined in part by the ways in which the USA and Japan respond to a rising China. In this connection, Tanaka makes a strong case against Japanese unilateralism, most visibly exemplified by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine. Tanaka's arguments are compelling. Indeed, assessing the significance of China and its expanding economy in terms of a “hegemonic” versus “defensive” dichotomy does little to help formulate strategies and policies to enable Japan to engage China. The two scenarios envisioned by Tanaka are more helpful. In fact, the debates now being waged in Japan about East Asia community building are deeply informed by these extrapolations. To put it in a different way, there are people who argue in favor of the necessity of Japan to productively engage and deter China within the framework of an East Asia community built on common rules and accepted conduct, and compatible with the Japan–USA alliance, while others (most notably the Japanese Prime Minister) put more emphasis on mainly deterring China by means of strengthening the Japan–USA alliance. These debates have become a major issue in Japanese politics in the light of the forthcoming Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election in September 2006, with current Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe taking the deterrence position and former Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda favoring the engage-and-deter position. The debates on China and, more generally, Japan's Asia diplomacy are no longer confined to policy and political circles, but have entered the public domain. Interestingly, the extensive reporting and vocal advocacy of Japan's two largest newspapers, the Yomiuri Shimbun and the Asahi Shimbun, as well as two other national newspapers, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun, have provided heavy ammunition for the engage-and-deter position, while denouncing Japan's unilateralism on the Yasukuni issue and isolating the other camp. In this context, Tanaka's article has broad policy and political implications for the coming LDP presidential election." @default.
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- W2065862521 date "2006-06-01" @default.
- W2065862521 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2065862521 title "Comment on Global and Regional Geo-strategic Implications of China's Emergence" @default.
- W2065862521 cites W2013255162 @default.
- W2065862521 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2006.00021.x" @default.
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