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- W2068804088 abstract "Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition, is non-replicable and is typically biased. In this paper we propose a methodology to analyze the qualities of individual and means of non-replicable forecasts. One part of the methodology seeks to retrieve a replicable component from the non-replicable forecasts, and compares this component against the actual data. A second part modifies the estimation routine due to the assumption that the difference between a replicable and a non-replicable forecast involves measurement error. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the methodological approach using both individuals and mean forecasts." @default.
- W2068804088 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2068804088 date "2011-04-01" @default.
- W2068804088 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2068804088 title "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts" @default.
- W2068804088 hasPublicationYear "2011" @default.
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