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- W2069917076 abstract "The purpose of this study is, first, to find out, based on historical data, whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, secondly, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the estimated yearly average into seasonal averages. This study applies the Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the year 2001 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the annual estimate. A set of historical data, consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and aggregate non-OPEC for the period 1971-2000, forms the basis of the analysis. Through the application of the Fourier analysis and X-11 decomposition method, it is demonstrated that quarterly non-OPEC supply, be it by an individual major producer or regional sub-totals, clearly follows a seasonal pattern. This is a very useful conclusion for the market analyst involved with forecasting the quarterly supply." @default.
- W2069917076 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2069917076 date "2003-05-05" @default.
- W2069917076 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2069917076 title "Short-Term Forecasting of Non-OPEC Supply: A Test of Seasonality and Seasonal Decomposition" @default.
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