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- W2070397512 abstract "We develop a model of GDP growth under which regime changes are triggered stochastically by an observable tension index, constructed as the geometric sum of deviations of actual GDP growth from a corresponding sustainable rate. Within expansionary regimes, the tension index tends to increase, which heightens the probability of a regime change. Given a regime change, the process becomes reversed, and the tension index begins to decline along a newly established path. Linking the behavior of the tension index to GDP growth enables us to capture floor and ceiling effects." @default.
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- W2070397512 date "2005-11-01" @default.
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- W2070397512 title "A Nonlinear Forecasting Model of GDP Growth" @default.
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