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• W2072086516 startingPage "e1003327" @default.
• W2072086516 abstract "The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, R0. Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission--pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation--and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of R0, both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data." @default.
• W2072086516 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2072086516 creator A5036534790 @default.
• W2072086516 creator A5038761209 @default.
• W2072086516 creator A5042225951 @default.
• W2072086516 creator A5071374164 @default.
• W2072086516 date "2013-12-12" @default.
• W2072086516 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W2072086516 title "Heterogeneity, Mixing, and the Spatial Scales of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission" @default.
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• W2072086516 doi "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003327" @default.
• W2072086516 hasPubMedCentralId "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3861021" @default.
• W2072086516 hasPubMedId "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24348223" @default.
• W2072086516 hasPublicationYear "2013" @default.
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