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• W2074967107 abstract "Abstract. Recent summer heat waves in Europe were preceded by precipitation deficits in winter. Numerical studies suggest that these phenomena are dynamically linked by land-atmosphere interactions. However, there is still no clear evidence that connects summer climate variability to winter precipitation and the relevant circulation pattern so far. Using a technique specially designed for detecting directional influences between climatic fields, we investigate the statistical responses of summer mean as well as maximum temperature variability (June–August, Tmean and Tmax) to preceding winter precipitation (January–March, PJFM) for the period 1901–2005. There appear distinctive Tmean and Tmax responses to PJFM over the Mediterranean, where it is most sensitive to land-atmosphere interactions. An analysis of soil moisture proxy (self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index, scPDSI) shows that the PJFM seems to influence summer temperature via soil moisture, and therefore the Tmean and Tmax responses we present here are very likely to be physical hints of water cycle interactions with temperature. We estimate that roughly 10~20% of the interannual variability of Tmax and Tmean over the Mediterranean is forced by PJFM; for the scPDSI, these values amount to 20~25%. Further analysis shows that these responses are highly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regime over the Mediterranean. Therefore we suggest that NAO modulates European summer temperature via controlling precipitation that initializes the moisture states of water cycle interactions with temperature. This clear picture of relations between European summer climate and NAO-related precipitation suggests potential for improved seasonal prediction of summer climate in particular extreme events." @default.
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• W2074967107 date "2010-07-30" @default.
• W2074967107 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W2074967107 title "European summer climate modulated by NAO-related precipitation" @default.
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• W2074967107 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-7-5079-2010" @default.
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