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- W2077357104 abstract "Abstract Background: In economically developed countries, the pattern of mortality attributable to major disease classes appears similar in shape to the excess mortality attributed to pneumonia and influenza. We asked to what extent influenza activity is correlated with seasonality of all mortality. Methods: Monthly mortality, for all-causes and five disease classes plus influenza, was assembled for 50 years for the US, Japan and Australia. A transformation, z-scaling, was performed on the time trace of each mortality class; and the time-local coefficient of variation (moving CV) was calculated. An epidemiological version of the Henle–Koch postulates was defined. Results: All mortality classes z-scaled to a single curve for each country, the most variable feature of which correlated well with influenza activity. The moving CV of all vascular diseases is similar in each country and the variability in pulmonary disease was everywhere two to three times greater. Overall, variability in Japan was 2× the US and 1.5× Australia. A “notch”, in the z-scale and moving CV, for all Japanese mortality classes, coincided with the national program of schoolchildren vaccination. Conclusions: In developed countries, there is a common cause for all seasonal mortality due to disease. Influenza is the dominant element in this set of causes." @default.
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- W2077357104 date "2001-10-01" @default.
- W2077357104 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2077357104 title "The seasonality of human mortality: the role of influenza" @default.
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- W2077357104 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0531-5131(01)00380-6" @default.
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