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- W2078477694 abstract "본 연구에서는 기후변화와 함께 수리구조물의 영향을 고려함으로써 금강유역의 미래 수문순환의 특성의 변화를 검토하고자 하였다. SWAT을 이용하여 금강유역에 대한 유출모형을 구축하였으며, 금강 본류에 시공된 3개의 보 요소를 저수지 요소로 입력하였다. 3개의 기후변화 시나리오와 3개의 기후모형으로 구성된 9개의 기상계열을 모형의 입력자료로 활용하였다. 과거기간(1980-2009)을 기준으로 미래 3개의 기간(2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099)을 구분하고 유역의 수문순환 특성의 변화를 시공간적으로 확인하였다. 전반적으로 강수량의 증가, 융설량의 감소, 증발산량의 증가, 토양수분량의 감소, 유출량의 증가 경향이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 미래 유출특성을 분석한 결과 중장기적으로 유출량과 불확실성이 증가하였다. 월별 유출 분석 결과 홍수기 유출량의 증가와 갈수기 유출량의 감소 특성으로 인하여 미래에 홍수와 가뭄의 발생빈도 및 규모가 증가할 것이며 특히 가뭄피해가 더욱 심각할 것으로 예상되었다. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of climate change and hydraulic structures on future hydrological cycle in the Geum river basin. The rainfall-runoff model was built up using Soil and Water Assessment tool and the three weirs were input to the model as reservoir factor. The nine weather data series consisted by the three climate change scenarios and the three climate models were used as input data sets of the model. The spatio-temporal change of the hydrological cycle characteristics was explored in the three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099) on the basis of the historical period (1980-2009). As a result, the trends showed the increase of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff and the decrease of snowmelt and soil water content. The runoff and its uncertainty increased in the mid-term and long-term from the estimated result. Both of the flood and drought risk was predicted to increase due to the increased runoff in wet season and the decreased runoff in dry season. Especially drought damage will be the most serious in the future." @default.
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- W2078477694 date "2014-10-31" @default.
- W2078477694 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W2078477694 title "Analysis of Future Hydrological Cycle considering the Impact of Climate Change and Hydraulic Structures in Geum River Basin" @default.
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- W2078477694 doi "https://doi.org/10.9798/kosham.2014.14.5.299" @default.
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