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• W2080630066 abstract "Oh come on! You're such a Cassandra. am not 'such a Cassandra.' I AM Cassandra! --Woody Allen, Mighty Aphrodite Articles in which state of Canadian-American relations is analyzed appear regularly in books and journals like Canada among Nations, Etudes internationales, and The American Review of Canadian Studies. Current events and authors' basic premises determine whether tone of these summing up and crystal-gazing papers radiates optimism or pessimism. Beginning in 1995, a consensus developed among commentators assessing relations between Chretien government and Clinton administration: all is well indeed! (1) In 1996, Joseph Jockel asserted that the relationship has entered into a period of enduring calm. (2) Nothing has happened since to contradict that statement: most of exchanges between Canada and United States occur without snags, leaders appear to be on good terms, and they have managed to cooperate and harmonize their positions on a significant number of international issues. Of course, a number of recurrent problems tend to annoy Canadian and American officials when they flare up--for example, never-ending disputes over softwood lumber and fishing rights, or preservation of Canada's cultural identity--but these are of minor importance and they do not all occur at same time, making them easier to manage. Better still, a number of these problems have been resolved, even if only on a temporary basis. The task of analyst under these circumstances is both simple and complex. Generally, political pundits are problem solvers, at their best commenting on problematic situations. (3) Realistically, however, little can be said about a relationship between governments imbued with that much harmony, beyond identifying its causes and looking for those elements that might ensure its longevity. This essay will thus follow traditional summing up and crystal-gazing format. Along with most observers, I agree that Canadian-American relations are generally very good. We would do well, then, to identify structural and situational factors that have brought about this degree of harmony. However, changes could occur in coming months to alter dynamics of this relationship, and certain problems looming on horizon could, in medium-to-long term, well spoil party. This pessimistic outlook, a Cassandra-like prediction, (4) carries little risk: things are going so well at moment that any changes at all are bound to be for worse! Some authors have recently yielded to temptation and adopted such an approach. In an article published in 1996, Charles Doran underscored climate of uncertainty that colored relations dominated by near miss of October 1995 referendum on sovereignty of Quebec, recurring trade conflicts, and instability in international system. (5) If circumstances over last few years have rendered first two factors less urgent, third remains ever present. Indeed, given current state of affairs, instability in international system is likely to contribute to important differences of opinion that will arise. Admittedly, conflicts like those over trade and environment will not go away--differences over fish and forest products have strained commercial relations between two nations since 1870--but challenges to Canadian-American relations in next few years will probably be in areas without established guiding principles and where views of one side are diametrically opposed to those of other, as they are in fields of security and of culture. This essay is divided into three parts: first is an overview of structural and situational factors that may have an impact on dynamics of relations between two governments; in second, influence of some of these factors on actual state of Canadian-American relations will be examined; and finally, in third, certain considerations that support a more pessimistic view of future will be discussed. …" @default.
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• W2080630066 title "Canadian-American Relations: Time for Cassandra?" @default.
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• W2080630066 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/02722010009481048" @default.
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