FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2082219688> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W2082219688 endingPage "10725" @default.
• W2082219688 startingPage "10693" @default.
• W2082219688 abstract "Recent investigations have considered whether it is possible to achieve early detection of greenhouse‐gas‐induced climate change by observing changes in ocean variables. In this study we use model data to assess some of the uncertainties involved in estimating when we could expect to detect ocean greenhouse warming signals. We distinguish between detection periods and detection times. As defined here, detection period is the length of a climate time series required in order to detect, at some prescribed significance level, a given linear trend in the presence of the natural climate variability. Detection period is defined in model years and is independent of reference time and the real time evolution of the signal. Detection time is computed for an actual time‐evolving signal from a greenhouse warming experiment and depends on the experiment's start date. Two sources of uncertainty are considered: those associated with the level of natural variability or noise, and those associated with the time‐evolving signals. We analyze the ocean signal and noise for spatially averaged ocean circulation indices such as heat and fresh water fluxes, rate of deep water formation, salinity, temperature, transport of mass, and ice volume. The signals for these quantities are taken from recent time‐dependent greenhouse warming experiments performed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg with a coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation model. The time‐dependent greenhouse gas increase in these experiments was specified in accordance with scenario A of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The natural variability noise is derived from a 300‐year control run performed with the same coupled atmosphere‐ocean model and from two long (>3000 years) stochastic forcing experiments in which an uncoupled ocean model was forced by white noise surface flux variations. In the first experiment the stochastic forcing was restricted to the fresh water fluxes, while in the second experiment the ocean model was additionally forced by variations in wind stress and heat fluxes. The mean states and ocean variability are very different in the three natural variability integrations. A suite of greenhouse warming simulations with identical forcing but different initial conditions reveals that the signal estimated from these experiments may evolve in noticeably different ways for some ocean variables. The combined signal and noise uncertainties translate into large uncertainties in estimates of detection time. Nevertheless, we find that ocean variables that are highly sensitive indicators of surface conditions, such as convective overturning in the North Atlantic, have shorter signal detection times (35–65 years) than deep‐ocean indicators (≥100 years). We investigate also whether the use of a multivariate detection vector increases the probability of early detection. We find that this can yield detection times of 35–60 years (relative to a 1985 reference date) if signal and noise are projected onto a common “fingerprint” which describes the expected signal direction. Optimization of the signal‐to‐noise ratio by (spatial) rotation of the fingerprint in the direction of low‐noise components of the stochastic forcing experiments noticeably reduces the detection time (to 10–45 years). However, rotation in space alone does not guarantee an improvement of the signal‐to‐noise ratio for a time‐dependent signal. This requires an “optimal fingerprint” strategy in which the detection pattern (fingerprint) is rotated in both space and time." @default.
• W2082219688 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2082219688 creator A5016039253 @default.
• W2082219688 creator A5017246427 @default.
• W2082219688 creator A5023126551 @default.
• W2082219688 creator A5024684018 @default.
• W2082219688 creator A5029672195 @default.
• W2082219688 creator A5067273223 @default.
• W2082219688 creator A5069433956 @default.
• W2082219688 creator A5072775640 @default.
• W2082219688 date "1995-06-15" @default.
• W2082219688 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
• W2082219688 title "Ocean variability and its influence on the detectability of greenhouse warming signals" @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1483249126 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1675478785 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1716016095 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1965326454 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1968251041 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1974758328 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1975982290 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1976319295 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1978044686 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1981669700 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1981719480 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1983905897 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1984177133 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1986843849 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1987973691 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1998525123 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W1998892025 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2001283784 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2003287879 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2003906400 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2005128195 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2009376336 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2011088708 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2013956760 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2015563375 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2018247270 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2031851316 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2036387729 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2041948584 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2046665097 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2046750817 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2047685415 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2047825025 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2050119990 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2051895009 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2057236361 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2062463872 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2066744583 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2071570705 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2073064546 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2077409339 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2077517397 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2088039222 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2091329900 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2094748450 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2104127988 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2112262492 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2147243326 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2151161113 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2174939835 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W2175946842 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W281362404 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W34572307 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W4236753298 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W4239456296 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W4244547303 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W4248295804 @default.
• W2082219688 cites W46775752 @default.
• W2082219688 doi "https://doi.org/10.1029/95jc00683" @default.
• W2082219688 hasPublicationYear "1995" @default.
• W2082219688 type Work @default.
• W2082219688 sameAs 2082219688 @default.
• W2082219688 citedByCount "68" @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882012 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882013 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882014 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882015 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882016 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882017 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882018 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882019 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882020 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882021 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882022 @default.
• W2082219688 countsByYear W20822196882023 @default.
• W2082219688 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W2082219688 hasAuthorship W2082219688A5016039253 @default.
• W2082219688 hasAuthorship W2082219688A5017246427 @default.
• W2082219688 hasAuthorship W2082219688A5023126551 @default.
• W2082219688 hasAuthorship W2082219688A5024684018 @default.
• W2082219688 hasAuthorship W2082219688A5029672195 @default.
• W2082219688 hasAuthorship W2082219688A5067273223 @default.
• W2082219688 hasAuthorship W2082219688A5069433956 @default.
• W2082219688 hasAuthorship W2082219688A5072775640 @default.
• W2082219688 hasConcept C111368507 @default.

• next