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• W2082431805 abstract "Abstract Research indicates that focused deterrence interventions are associated with violence reductions, although levels of success vary across sites. It is unknown if these strategies can produce sustained reductions over time, and if the variation in success is due to differences in program activities and dosages. This study provides a detailed description and evaluation of the Cincinnati Initiative to Reduce Violence (CIRV), a focused deterrence violence reduction strategy implemented in Cincinnati, Ohio. CIRV’s organizational structure and enhanced social services were designed to address sustainability issues that threaten to undermine long-term success. Results from our pooled time series regression models indicate that two violent outcomes—group/gang-member involved homicides and violent firearm incidents—declined significantly following implementation. These declines were observed in both 24- and 42-month post-intervention periods, but not in comparison outcomes. Additional analyses, however, reveal that provision of social services was not responsible for the significant and sustained decline. Keywords: pulling leversfocused deterrencegang violencegun violence Acknowledgments This research was supported by funding from the City of Cincinnati and the Ohio Office of Criminal Justice Services (OCJS). Data and other informational materials were provided by partnering agencies of the Cincinnati Initiative to Reduce Violence (CIRV), including the Cincinnati Police Department, Cincinnati Works, Talbert House, Cincinnati Human Relations Commission, and the Community-Police Partnering Center. The description and findings presented within this report are from the authors, and do not necessarily represent the official positions of employees of the City of Cincinnati, Office of Criminal Justice Services, or any CIRV partner agencies. The authors would like to thank all of the hard-working individuals that comprise the CIRV Team, along with the employees of the many CIRV partnering agencies; especially the Cincinnati Police Department and the CIRV Street Advocates. Your work has saved lives, and Cincinnati is a better place based on your extraordinary efforts. Notes 1. It is also important to note Cook, Ludwig, and Braga (Citation2005) found that although high incidence rates of lethal violence were committed by groups of chronic offenders with prevalent, serious, and often violent criminal histories, a large portion of overall lethal violence is often committed by individuals with no prior arrests or convictions. 2. Note, however, that Berk (Citation2005) criticized Rosenfeld et al.’s (Citation2005) approach as “assume-and-proceed statistics” (p. 455) and argued that they made multiple assumptions about their data that cannot be verified, and therefore “the statistical tools applied far outstrip current substantive knowledge” (p. 457). 3. LE team members include: CPD, Hamilton County Sheriff’s Office, Hamilton County Adult Probation, Ohio Adult Parole Authority, Hamilton County Prosecutor’s Office, US Attorney’s Office, and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives, and supported by the Ohio State Attorney General’s Office and the Ohio Office of Criminal Justice Services. 4. In Cincinnati, there are few known stand-alone juvenile gangs; rather the majority of violent groups in the city have both juvenile and adult members (Engel & Dunham, Citation2009); law enforcement officials believe that the adult members are able to exert pressure/influence over the younger members (also see Braga et al., Citation2008). 5. Klinger and Bridges (Citation1997) provide empirical support for the preferred use of criminal offense data relative to calls for service measures when examining specific types of violent and predatory crime due to systematic undercounting and reporting issues observed with the latter method. 6. GMI homicides were classified by CPD officials based on the following criteria and processes. First, the name of the victim and suspect(s) (if known) were cross-checked with the routinely updated, official violent-group database. If either the victim or the suspect(s) were known group members, the homicide was coded as GMI. Second, if the victim was not a known group member and the suspect was unknown, the totality of situational homicide characteristics were considered, including: location of the offense; suspected involvement of the victim in illicit acts preceding the homicide; manner and type of death; demographic characteristics of the victim; time of day; likely suspects; and other relevant characteristics of the incident. If the totality of the circumstances suggests that group members were involved in the incident, it was coded as a GMI homicide, unless evidence existed to the contrary. Each case was reviewed retrospectively for proper GMI determination when additional suspect information was gathered. The updated classification is reflected in the current operationalization of the GMI homicide measure, through December 2010. Third, if the victim and/or suspect were known but did not appear in the group database, and a review of the circumstances as documented above indicated that they were group members, the individuals were added to the gang database, and the incident was coded as a GMI homicide. A single CPD commander was responsible for the final GMI classification of all homicides examined in these analyses; therefore there are no concerns regarding coder inter-rater reliability. We also note that domestic-related homicides that include group members were included as GMI incidents. The GMI classification indicates that a group member was involved in the homicide, but does not necessarily indicate that the crime itself was group-related. This coding approach may differ from other jurisdictions, making interagency comparisons difficult. This inclusive classification, however, provides for a more conservative test of CIRV’s likely impact on violence reduction. 7. The trend variable was created as a sequential time measure from the start to the end of the time series data (i.e. our data ran from January 2004 (1) to December 2010 (84). The trend-squared variable was simply the trend variable squared (trend variable × trend variable) to account for potential quadratic changes in a given time series. aBased on full time series (January 2004-December 2010). 8. We note that initial ARIMA models were performed on the lagged outcome measures (to more closely approximate a normal distribution) in an effort to assess whether serial autocorrelation plagued empirical models. Along with results from the Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, there was no significant evidence of temporal autocorrelation and thus we relied upon the GLM estimates (see McCleary & Hay, Citation1980). 9. We also estimated the outcomes using ARIMA models (on the logged outcomes in an effort to more closely approximate a normal distribution) to assess whether first-order serial autocorrelation existed in the specified outcome measures. There was no evidence of a unit-root process (Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test was not statistically significant) and thus we did not need to control for serial autocorrelation. 10. This probability was derived from the following equation: [1 − (1 − .05)2] = 0.0975, or roughly 9.8%. 11. Thus, the p-value associated with a 90% alpha level was as follows: (.10/2 = p < .05). Similarly, a 95% alpha threshold was observed as: (.05/2 = p < .025). For more details, see Shaffer (Citation1995). *p < .10 (Bonferroni adjustment = .05). **p < .05 (Bonferroni adjustment = .025). *p < .10 (Bonferroni adjustment = .05). **p < .05 (Bonferroni adjustment = .025). 12. We examined gang and firearm violence data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) and the National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS). We found that only 56 of the 253 US cities (22.1%) with a population of 100,000 or more reported their data to the NIBRS system. Also, 2008 was currently the most recent update of the data available by NIBRS, which provides a limited post-intervention period. SHR data is available for over 90% of large US cities (also limited to 2008 follow-up), but are problematic (i.e. inconsistent) in terms of measurement of gang homicides (Decker & Pyrooz, Citation2010). While an examination of gun homicides would strengthen the design across cities, the emphasis of CIRV was not gun homicide specific. In addition, the Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) program was also in effect in large urban cities nationally during this period (McGarrell, Corsaro, Hipple, & Bynum, Citation2010). aMonthly fixed effects dummy variables as well as trend measures estimated but not included in display. *p < .10 (Bonferroni adjustment = .05). **p < .05 (Bonferroni adjustment = .025)." @default.
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• W2082431805 date "2011-11-07" @default.
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• W2082431805 title "Reducing Gang Violence Using Focused Deterrence: Evaluating the Cincinnati Initiative to Reduce Violence (CIRV)" @default.
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• W2082431805 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2011.619559" @default.
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