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- W2085221805 abstract "Long wave theory posits cycles of c.50 years in the world economy.Long–cycle theory posits cycles of c.120 years in international relations (with economic consequences). However the historical record suggests great irregularity in these cycles – due presumably to underlying structural changes. Repetition of the last cycle is not to be expected. What is needed is to unravel the way the dynamics of the system have changed in response to structural changes. One relatively constant factor over 200 years has been the succession, approximately every half-century, of technological styles. Their interaction with the existing socio institutional framework is shown to generate long waves – under certain circumstances. What have changed greatly are three feedback processes, involving money, population, and inequality, which bring about endogenous waves if of appropriate sign and speed. Their evolution is traced since 1780, as is the course of the long cycle, which ends with a global war from which emerges a new world power and a new world order, as after 1945. A metamodel is built up to explain changing economic dynamics and the observed irregularities in the long fluctuations. Its predictive and prescriptive implications are explored for the European economy over the next 20 years." @default.
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- W2085221805 date "1992-01-01" @default.
- W2085221805 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2085221805 title "History as a forecasting tool: the future of the European economy in a long-wave/long-cycle perspective∗" @default.
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- W2085221805 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259200000017" @default.
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