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• W2085900183 abstract "Significance Forecasting is a vital part of strategic intelligence, offering policy makers indications about probable future conditions and aiding sound decision making. Nevertheless, there has not been a concerted effort to study the accuracy of intelligence forecasts over a large set of assessments. This study applied quantitative measures of forecasting accuracy commonly used in other areas of expert forecasting to over 1,500 strategic intelligence forecasts spanning approximately 6 y of intelligence production by a strategic assessment unit. The findings revealed a high level of discrimination and calibration skill. We also show how calibration may be improved through postforecast transformations. The study illustrates the utility of proactively applying scoring rules to intelligence forecasts as a means of outcome-based quality control." @default.
• W2085900183 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2085900183 creator A5023510020 @default.
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• W2085900183 date "2014-07-14" @default.
• W2085900183 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
• W2085900183 title "Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence" @default.
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• W2085900183 doi "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1406138111" @default.
• W2085900183 hasPubMedCentralId "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/4121776" @default.
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