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• W2087121514 abstract "1. IntroductionHepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, together with hepatitis C and alcohol abuse, is among the leading causes of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide [1Lok A.S McMahon B.J Chronic hepatitis B.Hepatology. 2001; 34: 1225-1241Crossref PubMed Scopus (807) Google Scholar, 2Lok A.S Heathcote J Hoofnagle J.H Management of hepatitis B: 2000 – summary of a workshop.Gastroenterology. 2001; 120: 1828-1853Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (728) Google Scholar]. It thus represents a relevant cause of morbidity and mortality [3Liaw Y.F Tai D.I Chu C.M Chen T.J The development of cirrhosis in patients with chronic type B hepatitis: a prospective study.Hepatology. 1988; 8: 493-496Crossref PubMed Scopus (544) Google Scholar, 4De Jongh F.E Janssen H.L.A De Man R.A Hop W.C.J Schalm S.W Van Blankenstein M Survival and prognostic indicators in hepatitis B surface antigen-positive cirrhosis of the liver.Gastroenterology. 1992; 103: 1630-1635Abstract PubMed Google Scholar, 5Fattovich G Giustina G Schalm S.W Hadziyannis S Sanchez-Tapias J Almasio P et al.Occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensation in western european patients with cirrhosis type B.Hepatology. 1995; 21: 77-82PubMed Google Scholar], and induces substantial direct and indirect social costs. Effective treatment of HBV-related conditions would significantly reduce the global burden of chronic liver disease.Interferon-α has been the mainstay of therapy for chronic hepatitis B since the early 80’s. Meta-analyses [6Almasio P Cammà C Giunta M Craxı̀ A Treatment of chronic hepatitis B: an evidence-based review.in: McDonald J.W.D Burroughs A Feagan B.G Evidence-based gastroenterology and hepatology. BMJ Publications, London1999: 305-321Google Scholar, 7Wong J.B Koff R.S Tiné F Pauker S.G Cost-effectiveness of interferon-alpha 2b treatment for hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B.Ann Intern Med. 1995; 122: 664-675Crossref PubMed Scopus (192) Google Scholar, 8Tiné F Liberati A Craxı̀ A Almasio P Pagliaro L Interferon treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis B: a meta-analysis of the published literature.J Hepatol. 1993; 18: 154-162Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (87) Google Scholar, 9Wong D.K Cheung A.M O'Rourke K Naylor C.D Detsky A.S Heathcote J Effect of alpha-interferon treatment in patients with hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B.A meta-analysis. Ann Intern Med. 1993; 119: 312-323Crossref PubMed Scopus (1039) Google Scholar] of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conclusively prove its effectiveness in normalizing alanine aminotransferases (ALT) and clearing hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and HBV DNA from blood in 25–40% of patients treated. No definite data are available from these reviews on improvements of liver histology. Standardized response criteria have been set by the use of these surrogate markers of cure [10Evans A.A London W.T Interferon for chronic hepatitis B.Ann Intern Med. 1996; 124: 276Crossref PubMed Scopus (2) Google Scholar, 11Carithers Jr, R.L Effect of interferon on hepatitis B.Lancet. 1998; 351: 157Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (11) Google Scholar], on the ground of clinical and biological plausibility. True disease endpoints (i.e. progression to cirrhosis, to HCC and death) cannot usually be assessed in short-term trials of interferon (IFN) due to the slow natural course of chronic hepatitis B. A major issue of concern is the fact that RCTs of IFN for chronic hepatitis B have been mostly performed in patients without advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. The transferability of results to the whole spectrum of subjects with chronic liver disease due to HBV is hence questionable.Since IFN is widely used for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B [1Lok A.S McMahon B.J Chronic hepatitis B.Hepatology. 2001; 34: 1225-1241Crossref PubMed Scopus (807) Google Scholar, 2Lok A.S Heathcote J Hoofnagle J.H Management of hepatitis B: 2000 – summary of a workshop.Gastroenterology. 2001; 120: 1828-1853Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (728) Google Scholar, 10Evans A.A London W.T Interferon for chronic hepatitis B.Ann Intern Med. 1996; 124: 276Crossref PubMed Scopus (2) Google Scholar, 11Carithers Jr, R.L Effect of interferon on hepatitis B.Lancet. 1998; 351: 157Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (11) Google Scholar], no additional prospective cohort studies on the course of untreated disease will be feasible. Long-term retrospective or prospective studies to evaluate the benefits of IFN therapy on true endpoints, i.e. prevention of cirrhosis, liver failure, HCC and death, will also difficult to perform due to the prolonged and slow course of the disease.The aim of this meta-analysis is to review and update the available evidence in order to estimate the effectiveness of IFN-α in chronic hepatitis B on surrogate markers of response and its long-term benefit.The meta-analysis was performed according to the criteria set by Lau et al. [[12]Lau J Ioannidis J.P Schmid C.H Quantitative synthesis in systematic reviews.Ann Intern Med. 1997; 127: 820-826Crossref PubMed Scopus (2130) Google Scholar]. The primary source of studies reviewed was the MEDLINE database (1985–2002) (key words: chronic hepatitis, hepatitis B, interferon alpha, RCT, randomized, clinical trial, long-term study). Reference lists of all available review articles and primary studies were also checked in order to identify other studies not found by computer search. Potentially relevant papers were initially classified into two subsets (1: RCTs; 2: cohort studies).Studies allocated to subset 1 were included in the meta-analysis if they were truly randomized and had a crossover or a parallel design comparing different schedules of treatment to a control group receiving no treatment; if they had been published in English as full-length papers; if they included adult patient (older than 18 years) with biopsy-proven chronic hepatitis B with or without cirrhosis, and with abnormal aminotransferases levels for at least 3 months, without evidence of HDV superinfection and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection or of HCV coinfection (since 1990); if they had used interferon-α (recombinant α2a or α2b, human lymphoblastoid αN1 or human leukocyte derived αN3) in naive patients. Studies were excluded if they used IFN in combination with other antiviral or immunomodulatory agents (except steroid induction); if they had not been published in English or as a preliminary report subsequently published as final paper; if they randomized only primary responders, or pooled randomized with nonrandomized patients. Duplicate reports, as well as studies reported solely in abstracts, letters and preliminary reports were also excluded. Abstracts were excluded because of the potential risk for duplication of the results and a substantial and uninterpretable bias could be introduced. Twenty-four RCTs [13Alexander G.J Brahm J Fagan E.A Smith H.M Daniels H.M Eddleston A.L Williams R Loss of HBsAg with interferon therapy in chronic hepatitis B virus infection.Lancet. 1987; 8550: 66-69Abstract Scopus (226) Google Scholar, 14Carreño V Porres J.C Mora I Gutiez J Quiroga J.A lRamón y Cajal S et al.A controlled study of treatment with recombinant interferon alpha in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: induction and maintenance schedules.Antiviral Res. 1987; 3: 125-137Crossref Scopus (25) Google Scholar, 15McDonald J.A Caruso L Karayiannis P Scully L.J Harris J.R Forster G.E Thomas H.C Diminished responsiveness of male homosexual chronic hepatitis B virus carriers with HTLV-III antibodies to recombinant alpha-interferon.Hepatology. 1987; 7: 719-723Crossref PubMed Scopus (131) Google Scholar, 16Hoofnagle J.H Peters M Mullen K.D Jones D.B Rustgi V Di Bisceglie A et al.Randomized, controlled trial of recombinant human alpha-interferon in patients with chronic hepatitis B.Gastroenterology. 1988; 95: 1318-1325Abstract PubMed Google Scholar, 17Lok A.S Lai C.L Wu P.C Leung E.K Long-term follow-up in a randomised controlled trial of recombinant alpha 2-interferon in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B infection.Lancet. 1988; 2: 298-302Abstract PubMed Scopus (163) Google Scholar, 18Porres J.C Carreño V Mora I Gutiez J Moreno A Cajal S.R et al.Different doses of recombinant alpha interferon in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B patients without antibodies against the human immunodeficiency virus.Hepatogastroenterology. 1988; 6: 300-303Google Scholar, 19Pastore G Santantonio T Monno L Milella M Luchena N Angarano G Permanent inhibition of viral replication induced by low dosage of human leukocyte interferon in patients with chronic hepatitis B.Hepatogastroenterology. 1988; 35: 57-61PubMed Google Scholar, 20Brook M.G McDonald J.A Karayiannis P Caruso L Forster G Harris J.R Thomas H.C Randomised controlled trial of interferon alpha 2A (Roferon-A) for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection: factors that influence response.Gut. 1989; 30: 1116-1122Crossref PubMed Scopus (101) Google Scholar, 21Brook M.G Chan G Yap I Karayannis P Lever A.M.L Jacyna M et al.Randomised controlled trial of lymphoblastoid IFN alpha in Europid men with chronic hepatitis B virus infection.Br Med J. 1989; 299: 652-656Crossref PubMed Scopus (92) Google Scholar, 22Saracco G Mazzella G Rosina F Cancellieri C Lattore V Raise E et al.A controlled trial of human lymphoblastoid interferon in chronic hepatitis B in Italy.Hepatology. 1989; 10: 336-341Crossref PubMed Scopus (96) Google Scholar, 23Fattovich G Brollo L Boscaro S Pontisso P Giustina G Criscuolo D et al.Long-term effect of low dose recombinant interferon therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B.J Hepatol. 1989; 3: 331-337Abstract Full Text PDF Scopus (34) Google Scholar, 24Müller R Baumgarten R Markus R Schulz M Wittenberg H Hintsche-Kilger B et al.Treatment of chronic hepatitis B with interferon alpha-2b.J Hepatol. 1990; 11: S137-S140Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (27) Google Scholar, 25Perrillo R.P Schiff E.R Davis G.L Bodenheimer Jr, H.C Lindsay K Payne J et al.A randomized, controlled trial of interferon alpha-2b alone and after prednisone withdrawal for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. The Hepatitis Interventional Therapy Group.N Engl J Med. 1990; 323: 295-301Crossref PubMed Scopus (777) Google Scholar, 26Williams S.J Craig P.I Cooksley W.G Bye W.A Bilous M Grierson J.M et al.Randomised controlled trial of recombinant human interferon -alpha A for chronic active hepatitis B.Aust N Z J Med. 1990; 20: 9-19Crossref PubMed Scopus (24) Google Scholar, 27Waked I Amin M Abd el Fattah S Osman L.M Sabbour M.S Experience with interferon in chronic hepatitis B in Egypt.J Chemother. 1990; 2: 310-318PubMed Google Scholar, 28Realdi G Fattovich G Pastore G Caredda F Noventa F Santantonio T et al.Problems in the management of chronic hepatitis B with interferon: experience in a randomized, multicentre study.J Hepatol. 1990; 11: S129-S132Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (29) Google Scholar, 29Lok A.S Wu P.C Lai C.L Lau J.Y Leung E.K Wong L.S et al.A controlled trial of interferon with or without prednisone priming for chronic hepatitis B.Gastroenterology. 1992; 102: 2091-2097Abstract PubMed Google Scholar, 30Di Bisceglie A.M Fong T.L Fried M.W Swain M.G Baker B Korenman J et al.A randomized, controlled trial of recombinant alpha-interferon therapy for chronic hepatitis B.Am J Gastroenterol. 1993; 88: 1887-1892PubMed Google Scholar, 31Bayraktar Y Uzunalimoglu B Arslan S Koseoglu T Kayhan B Telatar H Effects of recombinant alpha interferon on chronic active hepatitis B: preliminary results.Gut. 1993; 34: S101Crossref PubMed Scopus (7) Google Scholar, 32Müller R Baumgarten R Markus R Schulz M Wittenberg H Hintsche-Kilger B et al.Low dose alpha interferon treatment in chronic hepatitis B virus infection.Gut. 1993; 34: S97-S98Crossref PubMed Scopus (8) Google Scholar, 33Wong D.K Yim C Naylor C.D Chen E Sherman M Vas S et al.Interferon alpha treatment of chronic hepatitis B: randomized trial in a predominantly homosexual male population.Gastroenterology. 1995; 108: 165-171Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (82) Google Scholar, 34Sarin S.K Guptan R.C Thakur V Malhotra S Malhotra V Banerjee K Khandekar P Efficacy of low-dose alpha interferon therapy in HBV-related chronic liver disease in Asian Indians: a randomized controlled trial.J Hepatol. 1996; 24: 391-396Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (25) Google Scholar, 35Janssen H.L Gerken G Carreno V Marcellin P Naoumov N.V Craxı̀ A et al.Interferon alpha for chronic hepatitis B infection: increased efficacy of prolonged treatment. The European Concerted Action on Viral Hepatitis (EUROHEP).Hepatology. 1999; 30: 238-243Crossref PubMed Scopus (148) Google Scholar] from subset 1 were included in the meta-analysis (Table 1) . Main sociodemographic features of patients and the schedules of treatment were analysed in order to verify their actual comparability. Abstraction of data was independently performed by two readers (D.D.B. and C.C.), who compared results and then achieved consensus.Table 1IFN treatment of HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B (RCTs)IDStudyYearPatientsScheduleTotal doseType of IFN1Alexander et al. [13]Alexander G.J Brahm J Fagan E.A Smith H.M Daniels H.M Eddleston A.L Williams R Loss of HBsAg with interferon therapy in chronic hepatitis B virus infection.Lancet. 1987; 8550: 66-69Abstract Scopus (226) Google Scholar19874610 MU/m2 TIW for 6 months720 MULymphoblastoid2Carreno et al. [14]Carreño V Porres J.C Mora I Gutiez J Quiroga J.A lRamón y Cajal S et al.A controlled study of treatment with recombinant interferon alpha in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: induction and maintenance schedules.Antiviral Res. 1987; 3: 125-137Crossref Scopus (25) Google Scholar1987205.5 MU/m2 i.m. daily for 3 weeks then twice weekly for 6 months380 MU/m2r-IFNα-2c3Mc Donald et al. [15]McDonald J.A Caruso L Karayiannis P Scully L.J Harris J.R Forster G.E Thomas H.C Diminished responsiveness of male homosexual chronic hepatitis B virus carriers with HTLV-III antibodies to recombinant alpha-interferon.Hepatology. 1987; 7: 719-723Crossref PubMed Scopus (131) Google Scholar1987412.5, 5, 10 MU/m2 i.m. TIW for 6 months180, 360, 720 MUr-IFNα-2a4Hoofnagle et al. [16]Hoofnagle J.H Peters M Mullen K.D Jones D.B Rustgi V Di Bisceglie A et al.Randomized, controlled trial of recombinant human alpha-interferon in patients with chronic hepatitis B.Gastroenterology. 1988; 95: 1318-1325Abstract PubMed Google Scholar1988455 MU daily or 10 every other day for 4 months560 MUr-IFNα-2b5Lok et al. [17]Lok A.S Lai C.L Wu P.C Leung E.K Long-term follow-up in a randomised controlled trial of recombinant alpha 2-interferon in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B infection.Lancet. 1988; 2: 298-302Abstract PubMed Scopus (163) Google Scholar1988722.5, 5, 10 MU/m2 i.m. TIW for 6 months180, 360, 720 MUr-IFNα-2a6Porres et al. [18]Porres J.C Carreño V Mora I Gutiez J Moreno A Cajal S.R et al.Different doses of recombinant alpha interferon in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B patients without antibodies against the human immunodeficiency virus.Hepatogastroenterology. 1988; 6: 300-303Google Scholar1988242.5, 5, 10 MU/m2 i.m. TIW for 6 months180, 360, 720 MUr-IFNα-2a7Pastore et al. [19]Pastore G Santantonio T Monno L Milella M Luchena N Angarano G Permanent inhibition of viral replication induced by low dosage of human leukocyte interferon in patients with chronic hepatitis B.Hepatogastroenterology. 1988; 35: 57-61PubMed Google Scholar1988280.07 to 0.10 MU/Kg i.m. daily for 1 month then twice weekly for 2 months2.52 to 3.6 MU/kgLeukocyte8Brook et al. [20]Brook M.G McDonald J.A Karayiannis P Caruso L Forster G Harris J.R Thomas H.C Randomised controlled trial of interferon alpha 2A (Roferon-A) for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection: factors that influence response.Gut. 1989; 30: 1116-1122Crossref PubMed Scopus (101) Google Scholar19896010 MU/m2 TIW i.m. for 6 months720 MUr-IFNα-2a9Brook et al. [21]Brook M.G Chan G Yap I Karayannis P Lever A.M.L Jacyna M et al.Randomised controlled trial of lymphoblastoid IFN alpha in Europid men with chronic hepatitis B virus infection.Br Med J. 1989; 299: 652-656Crossref PubMed Scopus (92) Google Scholar1989712.5, 5, 10 MU/m2 i.m. TIW for 6 months180, 360, 720 MUr-IFNα-2a10Saracco et al. [22]Saracco G Mazzella G Rosina F Cancellieri C Lattore V Raise E et al.A controlled trial of human lymphoblastoid interferon in chronic hepatitis B in Italy.Hepatology. 1989; 10: 336-341Crossref PubMed Scopus (96) Google Scholar1989645 MU/m2 i.m. TIW for 6 months360 MULymphoblastoid11Fattovich et al. [23]Fattovich G Brollo L Boscaro S Pontisso P Giustina G Criscuolo D et al.Long-term effect of low dose recombinant interferon therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B.J Hepatol. 1989; 3: 331-337Abstract Full Text PDF Scopus (34) Google Scholar1989334.5 MU i.m. TIW for 4 months216 MUr-IFNα-2a12Muller et al. [24]Müller R Baumgarten R Markus R Schulz M Wittenberg H Hintsche-Kilger B et al.Treatment of chronic hepatitis B with interferon alpha-2b.J Hepatol. 1990; 11: S137-S140Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (27) Google Scholar1990583 MU s.c. TIW for 4months144 MUr-IFNα-2b13Perrillo et al. [25]Perrillo R.P Schiff E.R Davis G.L Bodenheimer Jr, H.C Lindsay K Payne J et al.A randomized, controlled trial of interferon alpha-2b alone and after prednisone withdrawal for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. The Hepatitis Interventional Therapy Group.N Engl J Med. 1990; 323: 295-301Crossref PubMed Scopus (777) Google Scholar19901251 or 5 MU, s.c. daily for 4 months112 or 560 MUr-IFNα-2b14Williams et al. [26]Williams S.J Craig P.I Cooksley W.G Bye W.A Bilous M Grierson J.M et al.Randomised controlled trial of recombinant human interferon -alpha A for chronic active hepatitis B.Aust N Z J Med. 1990; 20: 9-19Crossref PubMed Scopus (24) Google Scholar1990302.5, 5, 10 MU/m2 i.m. TIW for 6 months180, 360, 720 MUr-IFNα-2a15Waked et al. [27]Waked I Amin M Abd el Fattah S Osman L.M Sabbour M.S Experience with interferon in chronic hepatitis B in Egypt.J Chemother. 1990; 2: 310-318PubMed Google Scholar1990405 MU/m2 s.c. 3 or 7 times weekly for 4 months240 or 560 MU/m2r-IFNα-2b16Realdi et al. [28]Realdi G Fattovich G Pastore G Caredda F Noventa F Santantonio T et al.Problems in the management of chronic hepatitis B with interferon: experience in a randomized, multicentre study.J Hepatol. 1990; 11: S129-S132Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (29) Google Scholar1990794.5 MU i.m. TIW for 4 months216 MUr-IFNα-2a17Lok et al. [29]Lok A.S Wu P.C Lai C.L Lau J.Y Leung E.K Wong L.S et al.A controlled trial of interferon with or without prednisone priming for chronic hepatitis B.Gastroenterology. 1992; 102: 2091-2097Abstract PubMed Google Scholar19923410 MU s.c. TIW for 4months480 MUr-IFNα-2b18Lok et al. [29]Lok A.S Wu P.C Lai C.L Lau J.Y Leung E.K Wong L.S et al.A controlled trial of interferon with or without prednisone priming for chronic hepatitis B.Gastroenterology. 1992; 102: 2091-2097Abstract PubMed Google Scholar19924110 MU s.c. TIW for 4months480 MUr-IFNα-2b19Di Bisceglie et al. [30]Di Bisceglie A.M Fong T.L Fried M.W Swain M.G Baker B Korenman J et al.A randomized, controlled trial of recombinant alpha-interferon therapy for chronic hepatitis B.Am J Gastroenterol. 1993; 88: 1887-1892PubMed Google Scholar19934710 MU s.c. TIW for 4 months480 MUr-IFNα-2b20Bayraktar et al. [31]Bayraktar Y Uzunalimoglu B Arslan S Koseoglu T Kayhan B Telatar H Effects of recombinant alpha interferon on chronic active hepatitis B: preliminary results.Gut. 1993; 34: S101Crossref PubMed Scopus (7) Google Scholar1993355 MU TIW s.c. for 6months360 MUr-IFNα-2b21Muller et al. [32]Müller R Baumgarten R Markus R Schulz M Wittenberg H Hintsche-Kilger B et al.Low dose alpha interferon treatment in chronic hepatitis B virus infection.Gut. 1993; 34: S97-S98Crossref PubMed Scopus (8) Google Scholar1993553 MU s.c. TIW for 4months144 MUr-IFNα-2b22Wong et al. [33]Wong D.K Yim C Naylor C.D Chen E Sherman M Vas S et al.Interferon alpha treatment of chronic hepatitis B: randomized trial in a predominantly homosexual male population.Gastroenterology. 1995; 108: 165-171Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (82) Google Scholar19955010 MU/m2 TIW for 3 months360 MUr-IFNα-223Sarin et al. [34]Sarin S.K Guptan R.C Thakur V Malhotra S Malhotra V Banerjee K Khandekar P Efficacy of low-dose alpha interferon therapy in HBV-related chronic liver disease in Asian Indians: a randomized controlled trial.J Hepatol. 1996; 24: 391-396Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (25) Google Scholar1996413 MU s.c. TIW for 4months144 MUr-IFNα-2b24Janssen et al. [35]Janssen H.L Gerken G Carreno V Marcellin P Naoumov N.V Craxı̀ A et al.Interferon alpha for chronic hepatitis B infection: increased efficacy of prolonged treatment. The European Concerted Action on Viral Hepatitis (EUROHEP).Hepatology. 1999; 30: 238-243Crossref PubMed Scopus (148) Google Scholar199916210 MU s.c. TIW for 4 or 8 months480 or 960 MUr-IFNα-2b Open table in a new tab The evaluation of therapeutic efficacy was performed by an intention to treat strategy. Treatment effectiveness was assessed on surrogate markers of response such as stable normalization of ALT, sustained loss of HBV DNA, clearance of HBeAg and loss of HBsAg at 6–12 months of follow-up. In order to obtain an overall measure of treatment efficacy, we calculated the overall risk difference and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) between frequencies of events in both treated and untreated patients, according to the method of DerSimonian and Laird [[36]DerSimonian R Laird N Meta-analysis in clinical trials.Controlled Clin Trials. 1986; 7: 177-188Abstract Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (28444) Google Scholar]. If the confidence intervals between treated and untreated patients do not overlap, the results are statistically significant. The assumption of heterogeneity implied by the use of random effect models is plausible because of the differences in eligibility criteria, baseline characteristic of patients, treatment modalities and outcome measures. In addition to within-study variance, the random-effects model considers heterogeneity among studies. The overall risk difference was tested for significance using a Mantel–Haenszel χ2 test [[37]Mantel N Haenszel W Statistical aspects of the analysis of data from retrospective studies of disease.J Natl Cancer Inst. 1959; 22: 719-748PubMed Google Scholar]. We excluded each study at a time to ensure that no single trial would be solely responsible for the significance of any result (so-called robust analysis). All our analyses were computed using a program (courtesy of Professor Joseph Lau, Tufts University, USA). The number of patients needing treatment (NNT) to prevent one event, deriving from the inverse of the risk difference, was given as a measure of treatment effect [38Laupacis A Sackett D.L Roberts R.S An assessment of clinically useful measures of the consequences of treatment.N Engl J Med. 1988; 318: 1728-1733Crossref PubMed Scopus (1299) Google Scholar, 39Laupacis A Naylor C.D Sackett D.L How should the results of clinical trials be presented to clinicians? [Editorial].ACP J Club. 1992; 116: A12-A14Google Scholar].Subset 2 included 12 cohort studies [40Niederau C Heintges T Lange S Goldmann G Niederau C.M Mohr L Haeussinger D Long-term follow-up of HBeAg-positive patients treated with interferon alpha for chronic hepatitis B.N Engl J Med. 1996; 334: 1422-1427Crossref PubMed Scopus (800) Google Scholar, 41Lin S.M Sheen I.S Chien R.N Chu C.M Liaw Y.F Long-term beneficial effect of interferon therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection.Hepatology. 1999; 29: 971-975Crossref PubMed Scopus (419) Google Scholar, 42Fattovich G Giustina G Realdi G Corrocher R Schalm S.W Long-term outcome of hepatitis B e antigen-positive patients with compensated cirrhosis treated with interferon alpha. European Concerted Action on Viral Hepatitis (EUROHEP).Hepatology. 1997; 26: 1338-1342Crossref PubMed Scopus (211) Google Scholar, 43Di Marco V Lo Iacono O Camma C Vaccaro A Giunta M Martorana G et al.The long-term course of chronic hepatitis B.Hepatology. 1999; 30: 257-264Crossref PubMed Scopus (213) Google Scholar, 44Yuen M.F Hui C.K Cheng C.C Wu C.H Lai Y.P Lai C.L Long-term follow-up of interferon alpha treatment in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B infection: the effect on hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion and the development of cirrhosis-related complications.Hepatology. 2001; 34: 139-145Crossref PubMed Scopus (223) Google Scholar, 45Chen D.K Yim C O'Rourke K Krajden M Wong D.K Heathcote E.J Long-term follow-up of a randomized trial of interferon therapy for chronic hepatitis B in a predominantly homosexual male population.J Hepatol. 1999; 30: 557-563Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (15) Google Scholar, 46Evans A.A Fine M London W.T Spontaneous seroconversion in hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B: implications for interferon therapy.J Infect Dis. 1997; 176: 845-850Crossref PubMed Scopus (62) Google Scholar, 47Korenman J Baker B Waggoner J Everhart J.E Di Bisceglie A.M Hoofnagle J.H Long-term remission of chronic hepatitis B after alpha-interferon therapy.Ann Intern Med. 1991; 114: 629-634Crossref PubMed Scopus (380) Google Scholar, 48Lok A.S Chung H.T Liu V.W Ma O.C Long-term follow-up of chronic hepatitis B patients treated with interferon alpha.Gastroenterology. 1993; 105: 1833-1838PubMed Google Scholar, 49Lau D.T Everhart J Kleiner D.E Park Y Vergalla J Schmid P Hoofnagle J.H Long-term follow-up of patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with interferon alpha.Gastroenterology. 1997; 113: 1660-1667Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (284) Google Scholar, 50Fattovich G Giustina G Christensen E Pantalena M Zagni I Realdi G Schalm S.W Influence of hepatitis delta virus infection on morbidity and mortality in compensated cirrhosis type B. The European Concerted Action on Viral Hepatitis (Eurohep).Gut. 2000; 46: 420-426Crossref PubMed Scopus (340) Google Scholar, 51Hsu Y.S Chien R.N Yeh C.T Sheen I.S Chiou H.Y Chu C.M Liaw Y.F Long-term outcome after spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion in patients with chronic hepatitis B.Hepatology. 2002; 35: 1522-1527Crossref PubMed Scopus (584) Google Scholar] reporting data on loss of HBsAg, disease decompensation (i.e. ascites, jaundice, encephalopathy, portal hypertensive bleeding, and liver transplantation), development of HCC and death (Table 2) . The cohorts of patients in this subset were reviewed to assess the overall likelihood of loss of HBsAg, disease decompensation, development of HCC and death by the Confidence Profile Method [[52]Eddy M.D Hasselblad V Shacter R An introduction to a bayesian method for meta-analysis: the confidence profile method.Med Decis Making. 1990; 10: 15-23Crossref PubMed Scopus (74) Google Scholar] using the Fast*Pro software [[53]Eddy M.D Hasselblad V Shacter R Appendix B. Fast*Pro demo: a demonstration of the confidence profile method with an attached disk.Meta-analysis by the confidence profile method. The statistical synthesis of evidence. Academic Press, Boston, MA1992Google Scholar]. This is a Bayesian method for combining evidence (‘meta-analysis’) to estimate a probability distribution for a parameter. The result is a posterior distribution for the parameters of interest.Table 2Long-term follow-up of IFN-treated and untreated patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis BIDStudyYearFollow-up (years)Race (Asian/White)Age (mean years)PatientsIFN-treatedControlsHBsAg lossDecompensationHCCDeaths1Niederau et al. [40]Niederau C Heintges T Lange S Goldmann G Niederau C.M Mohr L Haeussinger D Long-term follow-up of HBeAg-positive patients treated with interferon alpha for chronic hepatitis B.N Engl J Med. 1996; 334: 1422-1427Crossref PubMed Scopus (800) Google Scholar19964.2W1561035310/10316/103NR6/1030/5313/533/532Lin et al. [41]Lin S.M Sheen I.S Chien R.N Chu C.M Liaw Y.F Long-term beneficial effect of interferon therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection.Hepatology. 1999; 29: 971-975Crossref PubMed Scopus (419) Google Scholar19997A3210167340/676/671/671/670/345/344/344/343Fattovich et al. [42]Fattovich G Giustina G Realdi G Corrocher R Schalm S.W Long-term outcome of hepatitis B e antigen-positive patients with compensated cirrhosis treated with interferon alpha. European Concerted Action on Viral Hepatitis (EUROHEP).Hepatology. 1997; 26: 1338-1342Crossref PubMed Scopus (211) Google Scholar19977.2W4690405011/406/404/408/405/5011/506/5011/504Di Marco et al. [43]Di Marco V Lo Iacono O Camma C Vaccaro A Giunta M Martorana G et al.The long-term course of chronic hepatitis B.Hepatology. 1999; 30: 257-264Crossref PubMed Scopus (213) Google Scholar19997.8W33.59339544/398/39NR3/390/5411/548/545Yuen et al. [44]Yuen M.F Hui C.K Cheng C.C Wu C.H Lai Y.P Lai C.L Long-term follow-up of interferon alpha treatment in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B infection: the effect on hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion and the development of cirrhosis-related complications.Hepatology. 2001; 34: 139-145Crossref PubMed Scopus (223) Google Scholar20018.9A27.54112082035/2084/2085/2082/2081/2032/2030/2030/2036Chen et al. [45]Chen D.K Yim C O'Rourke K Krajden M Wong D.K Heathcote E.J Long-term follow-up of a randomized trial of interferon therapy for chronic hepatitis B in a predominantly homosexual male population.J Hepatol. 1999; 30: 557-563Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (15) Google Scholar19995W>182413113/13NRNRNR0/117Evans et al. [46]Evans A.A Fine M London W.T Spontaneous seroconversion in hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B: implications for interferon therapy.J Infect Dis. 1997; 176: 845-850Crossref P" @default.
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