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- W2087373137 abstract "The paper investigates an econometric method for selecting macroeconomic policy rules when expectations are formed rationally. A simple econometric model of the U.S. is estimated subject to a set of rational expectations restrictions using a minimum distance estimation technique. The estimated model is then used to calculate optimal monetary policy rules to stabilize fluctuations in output and inflation, and to derive a long run tradeoff between price stability and output stability which incorporates the rationally formed expectations. The optimal tradeoff curve is compared with actual U.S. price and output stability and with the results of a monetary policy rule with a constant growth rate of the money supply. A TROUBLESOME SHORTCOMING with contemporary methods of quantitative macroeconomic policy is the failure to take full account of business and consumer reactions to the policies formulated. This problem is characteristic of both policy simulation and formal optimal control techniques, each of which are based on reduced form econometric models in which output and price expectations are formed by fixed coefficient distributed lag structures. Since these lag structures show no direct relationship to government policy, the mechanisms generating expectations are in general inconsistent with the expectations of firms and consumers who are aware of this policy.2 Finding empirical methods to deal with this problem is potentially important for a number of reasons. The social welfare gains expected from plans which rely on unresponsive expectations are likely to be significantly cut short, and perhaps made perversely negative, as people learn about policy through observation. Proper policy formulation therefore requires either the difficult task of modelling how people learn about unannounced plans,3 or the apparently easier task of publicly announcing plans, assuming that these will be incorporated in peoples'" @default.
- W2087373137 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2087373137 date "1979-09-01" @default.
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- W2087373137 title "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations" @default.
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- W2087373137 doi "https://doi.org/10.2307/1911962" @default.
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