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• W2091245504 abstract "Forecast uncertainties are a major problem in forecast-based water resource management. This study aims to improve the combined use of long- and short-term streamflow forecasts in reservoir operations by investigating the joint and respective effects of long- and short-term forecast uncertainties on decision-making processes. Forecast uncertainties in ensemble streamflow forecasts are explained, and the joint effect is characterized by a matrix of operation decisions. A novel statistical partitioning method is developed to diagnose the respective effects of long- and short-term forecast uncertainties, particularly on an experimental operation of the Danjiangkou Reservoir in China. Given the large regulating capacity of this reservoir, long-term forecast uncertainties inevitably surround its release decisions. When a fixed carried-over storage is used to couple long- and short-term forecasts, an ending storage effect is observed. As a stage approaches its end, the release decision becomes increasingly dependent on the carried-over storage, thereby increasing uncertainty in decision-making as a result of long-term forecast uncertainty. This finding highlights the importance of developing reliable long-term forecasts and selecting a proper carried-over storage to aid the decision-making process. This study proposes a sliding carried-over storage strategy to circumvent the ending storage effect. Results show that, using the same long-term forecast, the proposed strategy significantly alleviates the ending storage effect and reduces uncertainties in the decision-making process. The sliding carried-over storage strategy provides an efficient approach to the combined use of long- and short-term forecasts and improves reservoir operations." @default.
• W2091245504 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2091245504 date "2014-09-01" @default.
• W2091245504 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2091245504 title "Joint and respective effects of long- and short-term forecast uncertainties on reservoir operations" @default.
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• W2091245504 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.063" @default.
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