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- W2091689240 abstract "Abstract With the notable exception of Mughan (1987) , forecasting attempts in the United Kingdom have been solely concerned with developing popularity functions. This paper formulates a vote function model to forecast general elections in the UK. The model relies on three independent variables: approval of the government’s record, inflation, and a variable controlling for the “cost of ruling.” The model is estimated over the period 1955–1997 using a substantial six-month lead time. It performs reasonably well, and offers a plausible and parsimonious explanation of government vote support. The vote function is used to generate a forecast of the next British general election. It clearly predicts a majority government for Labour, assuming the election would be held in Spring 2001." @default.
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- W2091689240 date "2004-06-01" @default.
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- W2091689240 title "General election forecasts in the United Kingdom: a political economy model" @default.
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- W2091689240 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0261-3794(02)00071-9" @default.
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