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• W2092631775 abstract "The National Ports Council carries out trade forecasting work as an aid to investment appraisal and port monitoring. The work reported in this paper emerged as a by-product of a project to develop a system for providing short-term forecasts of port traffic. 1 1 An outline of the NPC's medium term trade forecasting system is given by Batchelor and Bowe (1974) and National Ports Council (1976). Details of the short term forecasting system are given in Hudson (1979). In the course of this project, UK trade data were analysed in considerable detail, over 80 commodity flows being distinguished. It was necessary to adjust some observations where known exogenous shocks had caused the level of data to be very different from what it would normally have been. The most obvious shocks which needed to be considered were UK dock strikes, although other disturbances may have had measurable effects on trade. Examples are the 1966 Seamen's strike, the 1971 Postal workers' strike which affected the recording of trade flows by delaying the receipt of documents, and dock strikes in other countries, particularly the USA and Canada. This paper concentrates on the analysis of the effects of three major UK dock strikes. It is axiomatic that a dock strike will have an effect on trade during the course of the stoppage, as no traffic can move if there are no dock workers to handle it. There is, however, scope for empirical research in determining whether trade is lost due to a strike or merely delayed. If it is lost, what is the magnitude of the loss? If it is delayed, for how long is it delayed? Are there any differences in the effects experienced by different types of commodity? Are exports affected more or less than imports? Sensible answers to these questions were needed in order to smooth out the effects of shocks on the data series. 2 2 It is beyond the scope of this paper to investigate the possibilities of long term effects on trade due to loss of goodwill or of effects on production due to shortages of raw materials. This paper records the research undertaken to investigate these problems and provides some answers and quantitative estimates for a wide range of commodities covering the whole of UK international trade other than trade in fuels and foodstuffs." @default.
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• W2092631775 date "1981-03-01" @default.
• W2092631775 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2092631775 title "The effects of dock strikes on UK international trade" @default.
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• W2092631775 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/00036848100000037" @default.
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